December Portfolio Update + Quick Review of 2010

December was a rather quiet month.

The main changes to my portfolio are

1) First Reit. I initiated a position in First REIT rights at 0.165, and subsequently exercised the rights by paying another 0.50, bringing my price to 0.665. This gives a yield of about 9.64%. This is a stock I wanted while it was 40c region, but procrastinated too long. While, hindsight is 20/20.

2) Silverlake. I initiated a position at 0.33, and I have written 2 posts about this.

3) CapitalMallsAsia. I initiated a position at 1.86.

4) Cut loss on China Sky at 0.22. While on hindsight, I could have done better and sold it this week with a profit instead of a $500 loss.... :(

5) Took profit on Breadtalk. Again, on hindsight, I could have earn more if I sold it this week, but then again, it's hindsight, and my number of lots is so little it would have mattered much anyway.

6) Subscribed for LC Dev rights. 

Quiet Good News for Starhub

Financial numbers should never be the absolute decision maker/trigger when determining whether to buy into a business. Here's one quiet good news from Starhub:

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StarHub secures deal from Marina Bay Sands

SINGAPORE : Info-communications provider StarHub said on Wednesday that it has secured a deal from Marina Bay Sands to provide telecommunications and entertainment services.

It added that the services will extend to both Marina Bay Sands (MBS) Expo and Convention Centre and its luxury hotel rooms and suites.

StarHub did not disclose the actual value and the period of the deal, but said it was a multi-year, multi-million dollar agreement.

In a statement, StarHub said the services will include mobile voice and data services, high-speed broadband and Internet lines.

Silverlake Axis Part 2

Silverlake's Barrier to Entry
Silverlake processes more than 50% of retail-banking transactions in South-East Asia. As mentioned earlier, Silverlake's software integrates the front-end and back-end of bank operations. From lending, deposits, credit cards, banking operations, Silverlake's software handles it. As the performance of such a software is critical to the smooth operation of banks, the reluctance and costs to switch are extremely high. As a result, it's customers will very likely stay loyal. Why risk a smooth banking operation on an untested new software when the current one is working very well?

From broker's writeup: It is of no coincidence that its clients are largely Southeast Asian Banks, including six of the nine anchor banks in Malaysia (EON Bank, Alliance Bank, Affin Bank, Hong Leong Bank, Malayan Banking and AMMB) and two Singapore Banks (OCBC and UOB). In Indonesia, it has six of the largest 10 banks, including Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat, Bank Tabungan Negara and Bank Niga.

In my opinion, with such client base at hand, any new bank wanting to set up shop in Singapore or Malaysia will consider Silverlake as a strong software logistics support for their banking operations. Coupled with loyal clients (based on logic, since I'm an engineer and I know how softwares tend to "stick" to companies for long), it would be tough for any newcomers into the market to snatch any clients.

Silverlake Axis Part 1

This is a write-up on this mini Malaysian company listed on the SGX called Silverlake Axis.
This write-up is not entirely original from me; it is a compilation of write-ups from a certain blog, my broker, Kim Eng's research and Nick's excel sheet calculations (thank you Nick!).

The company describes itself on the website: "Silverlake Axis is a leading provider of end-to-end universal integrated banking solution. The Group's award winning Silverlake Axis Integrated Banking Solutions are implemented at over 75 customer sites in Asia including 40% of the Top 20 Largest Banks in South East Asia."

CapitaMallsAsia and First REIT Purchase

Recently I bought 3 counters, FIRST REIT, Silverlake, and CapMallsAsia (CMA). This post will focus on CMA and FIRST REIT, and the simple reasons why I bought it.

The first and foremost reason is that CMA has fallen below it's IPO price of $2.12. While on hindsight, it would have been better to load GLP at $2.11, I went with CMA for the reason above :x

The second reason is more technical. Doing a basic Fibonacci retracement, 1.844 appears to be a nice support. However, I was a little impatient, and went in 3 lots at $1.86, along with 1 lot at $1.85.  

Keppel Green Trust -- an email to IR

At last I have the time to really flip through K-Green's prospectus. I didn't really do it earlier as I was really busy with my students' exams.

Taking a look confirm what most people have been saying all along... KGT might well be distributing it's NAV to it's stakeholders at the moment.

So I sent an email to KGT's IR and asked...

November Portfolio Update

November was quite a volatile month.

The main additions to my portfolio are

1) Saizen Reit. I added another 40 lots at 0.155 during the recent selldown, bringing my total to 140 lots. Hope I won't get to regret it :)

I was watching out for SingPost and Singtel, but they did not reach my target price yet. Will continue to watch out.

Sabana REIT -- Some Quick Thoughts

Sabana REIT debuted yesterday below it's IPO price of $1.05.

I had initially considered buying it at $1, but some considerations stopped me from doing so. From my sources that I looked through, this is the details:

1) Gearing: 26.5%
2) NAV: 99c
3) 99% space occupied.

4) Shar'iah Compliant
5) Dividend yield: 8+%
6) Sponsor: FreightLinks (owning 4.3% now)

Negative Emotions Kills Your Progress

Recently, I chanced upon this pretty self-explanatory graphic from the following website:

http://theprosperousmarketingblog.com/do-you-find-yourself-allowing-these-seven-major-negative-emotions-to-take-over-your-subconscious-mind/

Basically, negative emotions detract us from our path of intent... at least to me, it does... Over the years, I have gradually learn to think more positively, and to try to put away negative emotions as far as possible. Why get trapped in a vicious cycle of negative emotions and get nothing done eventually?

Choosing Fernvale HDB over Esparina

This post is in response to sgbluechip's post on Esparina
http://sgbluechip.blogspot.com/2010/11/visit-to-esparina-residences.html

For me, I'm eligible for the Esparina. In fact, it's right behind my parents' HDB. So I probably know that area very very well.

While I blogged a little bit about the Esparina before, I decide not to go with it in the end. The reasons:

Goal 2013

As the year draws to a close, it's time for me to set my goals and visions for the years ahead so that I have a clear path and direction to take.

My goals for 2010 are here:

http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2009/11/goal-2010.html

Completion Report:

1) Goal of achieving $1k average dividends per month, i.e. $12k dividends a year
Achieved!

2) Goal of setting up ExamWorld to a super big site to help more students
Didn't update much. Will continue to build it.

3) Goal of achieving at least USD$20 per month in adsense income.
Failed. Got banned from adsense. :( 
Could be a blessing in disguise as I'm planning other things.

4) Writing my own notes for my tuition students, and eventually be able to publish and sell to the different schools in Singapore
Started, progressing ok.

5) Goal of reaching $200k (SGD) networth in equities and MMF
Will be achieved next month! Currently at $196k+. Excludes CPF.

My HDB Purchase

I have selected a HDB flat last month, and paid an option fee of $2k. It's a build-to-order flat that costs $325.8k, and should be ready in about 2013. This is indeed a very big expenditure over the long run, and it makes me wonder how am I going to service the loan without much stress.

Extrapolating the growth of CPF savings from me and my girl's accounts, I estimate the total CPF savings to be sufficient to cover about one third of the cost by mid 2012. Basically, that leaves $200k to be serviced, still a substantial sum. In addition to that, I estimate that another $50k (at the minimum) might be needed for renovations. That puts it at a total of nearly $400k. I will need to plan financials when the time comes. For now, it shall remain as that.

Saizen REIT@valuebuddies

The following is a compilation of forum posts mostly by d.o.g., a respected forumer on valuebuddies forum, on Saizen REIT.

In general, he isn't too optimistic about it. On a sidenote, I'm much more optimistic, and have taken the opportunity to add another 40 lots of Saizen at $0.155 during last week's selldown.

This less optimistic and very very well written and thought out post serves to act as an alternative viewpoint.

Musings -- A loyal employee's life

Musings is a category where I will muse about random stuffs

I just had a salary raise from my full time job. While it might be fair considering the company's position, I'm still a little dissatisfied. However, I'm still stuck because I have to serve my scholarship bond with it.

Basically, I'm dissatisfied because this will contribute very little to the rate at which one can grow his/her networth. Being an employee entails
1) obeyance, follow the orders and directions of someone higher up!
2) being paid a fraction of your worth. The company needs to make profits for shareholders and for the CEO to own a personal helicopter!
3) repeating the same mindless thing many times. This is what others call job experience, or in my opinion, the experience of being able to repeat jobs that are slightly too complicated to be automated by a robot.

October Portfolio Update

The month of October saw one of my freezer stock slowly being defrosted... Berlian Laju... That was indeed lucky... I'm still contemplating when to sell it...

The main additions to my portfolio are

1) AIMSAMPIREIT. I was given 27 lots, 24.5 lots entitled, 2.5 lots excess. At the moment, I have 97 lots. Dividend of 0.3938 cts have been declared as well.

2) Keppel Green Trust. I loaded 2 days ago at $1.06 as it seems to be holding well. Whether it will continue to hold remains to be seen. At the moment, I have 15 lots, all at an average of $1.11.

Growing Networth -- My Journey so far

A reader of my blog sent me an email:

I'm working on a framework to allow a fresh grads to generate more passive income ( through dividends investing ) than their monthly expenses and my current spreadsheet shows this as being possible by age 31. The caveat is that the grad has to save 75% of take home pay.

You clearly broke all my financial assumptions on my spreadsheet so I'd like to understand more about your own personal ideas.

This blog post serves to answer his questions, and at the same time, help me to consolidate my thoughts.

Berlian Laju

I had wanted to write about Berlian Laju before the recent rise-up, but I just didn't have the time to do so.
These were the articles I had wanted to share when it was around 3.5cts.

http://www.theedgesingapore.com/blog-heads/kang-wan-chern/16933-kang-wan-chern-berlian-laju-tankers-badly-timed-expansion-moves-leave-investors-cold.html#

http://www.nextinsight.net/content/view/1963/60/

http://www.nextinsight.biz/content/view/1513/79/

http://www.nextinsight.biz/content/view/1521/79/

I shall just summarize my thoughts in points...

My Reservist and what I have learned

I'm back from reservist. I really can't believe how I survived the past month of busy-ness. But back here I am, still in one piece, fortunately.

I talked to many of my peers while in reservist, and have quite a few interesting insights. Unlike what the newspaper make out what the age group of 20~29 to be (in terms of high debt), none I knew while in reservist were under that category. However, I was rather aghast that while most know that financial planning is important, most do not know how to plan their finances, nor know how to invest their monies.

Some of the financial stats of pple I talked to and asked are below. It was rather interesting and enriching.

Person 1. Masters student with scholarship allowance of $3k/mth
Surprisingly, he has  not much savings. While he's not in debt, he spend quite a bit on travel. However, that's not his main expenditure. Interestingly, he spends nearly $1k a month on insurance and savings plan, all "advised" by his financial advisor. As such, he has not much savings left. He has since graduated from his masters program, and starting on a salaried job soon. Same age as me.

September Portfolio Update

The month of September was yet another crazy month. I increased my networth by another $9k including dividends and after expenses. In fact, it has been such a busy month that I did not even look much at how the market was doing, nor did I have much time to update this blog much. However, I had my google adsense account banned too during this crazy month where I did not even have time to visit my own blog much.

Some updates on my portfolio
1) This is the month where I have exercised my Saizen's warrants. I have also written a guide on how to convert your warrants in SGX.

True Financial Freedom for retirement?

* I realised I took very long to prepare this write-up due to my busy schedule :x *

Many a times, I see and hear people attempting to expound on their newly-read theories of financial freedom. The clichés of passive income, multiple streams of income, and all sorts of jargon that you can see and learn in any basic personal finance books all zoomed in the air towards you.

It strikes me as odd because if everyone in this world were to become disciplined and achieved their dreams of having a passive income exceeding their expenditure so as to be financially free, who in this world would still work? And if no one works, how will passive income still be generated?

To me, the 80/20 rule still applies. What most of the population knows (about passive income, etc) probably does work, but it is unlikely to bring us to the 20 of 80/20 any more. It's a wonder sometimes how some think that they have an advantage after reading just a few more personal finance books than others. The more I think, the more I believe that passive income generation is way overrated for the path towards financial freedom.

Again, another rule which I believe is that work is good for the soul. I believe the world is designed in such a way that work is necessary, else we will just waste away. Our souls and lives are like our muscles; if we don't do useful work with it, we will just waste away slowly since there's no need or use for us anymore.

Google AdSense Account Disabled‏

I received the email from google that all adsense supporters dreaded:

This message was sent from a notification-only email address that does not
accept incoming email. Please do not reply to this message.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Hello,

After reviewing our records, we've determined that your AdSense account
poses a risk of generating invalid activity. Because we have a
responsibility to protect our AdWords advertisers from inflated costs due
to invalid activity, we've found it necessary to disable your AdSense
account. Your outstanding balance and Google's share of the revenue will
both be fully refunded back to the affected advertisers.

Please understand that we need to take such steps to maintain the
effectiveness of Google's advertising system, particularly the
advertiser-publisher relationship. We understand the inconvenience that
this may cause you, and we thank you in advance for your understanding and
cooperation.

If you have any questions or concerns about the actions we've taken, how
you can appeal this decision, or invalid activity in general, you can find
more information by visiting
http://www.google.com/adsense/support/bin/answer.py?answer=57153.

Sincerely,

The Google AdSense Team 

I'm seriously demoralised, upset and I have no mood to write anything else. I have no idea why there are invalid clicks, and I have sent an appeal. I don't track any IP addresses on this blog, so I can't check anything at all. That's USD100 down the drain as I have just painstakingly reached it again this month after about 5 months. It's really rather moronic as my adsense earnings aren't even a lot to begin with.

That said, I have lost all motivation to continue building on any adsense sites or income, nor blog about anything any more. This is the last post. Any updates to this blog will be discontinued with effect from today.

But because of AK, cookieguy from LP's cbox, I will continue with this blog. Meanwhile, I will start to look for ways to replace adsense here, and replace the ads in ExamWorld as well. I will restart and replace and revamp my sites, probably for Yahoo Publisher Network and Adbrite. I still want my coffee pocket money :x

Since Google doesn't want to give me my pocket money, I will replace it eventually. Let me find some time for it.... I will do it.

How to Exercise Your Warrant Options (SGX)

I have exercised my Saizen Warrants recently. While doing so, I realised that there are people who were unsure of how to exercise their warrants. So here I am, writing a mini tutorial on how to exercise your warrants and convert them into mother shares.

I found out how to exercise my warrants from here:
http://www.cdp.com.sg/faq/warrant_faq1.html


Step 1:
Find out who your warrant agent is from
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/marketplace/mp-en/products/securities_products/company_warrants

August Portfolio Update

My time spent looking at the market is dwindling by the day. The advantage is that I'm even less flustered by the daily market fluctuations than ever before.  The month of August was crazy for me as my tuition piled up due to students taking their preliminary exams.

That said, I still managed to increase my holdings somewhat. The amount was rather major for my portfolio...

1) I loaded an extra 5 lots of Keppel Green Trust at $1.13. On hindsight, I could have been more patient, but that would only mean a few cents cheaper. Well... not much $$ there though...
Total Cost:  $5650

Preliminary Plans on Goal 2011

As the year approaches the 3rd quarter finish, some plans are already forming in my head for Goal 2011. The first 8 months of 2010 were good to me, but somehow, plans for next year have started to form in my head by itself. Perhaps I'm a little too impatient :)

For Goal 2010, the paths, strategies, methods, I have taken appeared to be bringing me closer to fulfilling my goals. The work was hard, at times tough, but the result is that I'm closer than ever to achieving my goals set out at the start of 2010. The only exception was ExamWorld, of which I have not updated much due to my hectic schedule.

My plans for coming year are in a way slightly different from 2010, yet in a way, similar. The growth of networth will still be on my checklist, but this time round, there will not be any concrete goals. This is because I will be planning to shift focus to a few things during the first half of the year where my tuition sideline (which is seasonal) will not take up as much of my time as now.

Considerations on Saizen REIT

Caelitus of CNA forums has kindly formed some questions for me to refine my thought processes regarding Saizen. I appreciate that a lot, and I'm posting his questions, and my answers here as a reference.

From Caelitus:
I will write candidly. From what I know, you have 40 lots of the share and 60 lots of the warrant. This is over and above your existing holdings which remain unknown to me. If you were to load more of the mother share, your exposure to this counter is increased compared to that of one where you converted your warrants. The latter brings the amount you committed to the warrants to earn the dividends (productive, de-risking).

Question yourself.
1. What are your rules on risk optimisation?
2. What percentage does Saizen form as a part of your portfolio?
3. As Saizen is focused on the Japanese residential market for 2nd tier cities, what are the opportunities and threats ahead? Deflation, diminishing population, portfolio of freehold properties available for redevelopment?
4. What is the opportunity cost? What about your other targets for dividend play or capital gain? We can look forward to future distributions but Saizen is not bounded by any regulation to distribute 90% of their income. Note the huge bank of warrants which has a very dilutive effect.

AIMSAMPIREIT Rights Issue

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT announces proposed acquisition, new debt facility and fully underwritten renounceable rights issue.

Key Highlights:

• Proposed acquisition of a high-quality industrial property at 27 Penjuru Lane Singapore 609195 (the “Property”) for S$161.0 million;
• New debt facility of S$280.0 million; and
• Fully underwritten renounceable 7 for 20 rights issue to raise S$79.6 million, (collectively, the “Transactions”).

The property being bought is at 27 Penjuru Lane, Singapore 609195, a warehouse and logistics facility.

More details of the purchase can be found here

Why I don't like saving plans

By saving plans, I refer to the plans sold mostly by insurance agents. These are plans that takes a fixed amount every month, and as seen from it's name, save it for you in a special savings account whose interest rate is higher than the bank's interest rate. In return, you are given some form of extremely basic insurance in the event of death, and you are allowed to withdraw a small amount monthly if you need it via vouchers sent to you. One example is NTUC Revosave.

However, there's a catch. The maturity date is 25~35 years later, with perhaps a 1~3% annual rate compounded over the 25~35 years.

To me, the main reason why people buy saving plans are because
(i) Super Duper Conservative
(ii) Financial Ignorance

How I build my income streams

"Multiple sources of income is the way to go!" How often do we hear that, and how well are we able to achieve it? It's a very nice idea and concept, nothing revolutionary, but still out of reach to most people who could only dream of it.

Indeed, it's something easy to say, not as easy as it seems to achieve. As humans, we are limited by the constraints of time and energy. This is the reason why leverage is necessary to reduce the amount of time and energy we need for each income stream. By leverage, I refer to leveraging on the time and energy of others, and also leveraging on the power of technology.

Quick updates

Rather busy, and fell ill. So I shall log down my personal quick views of some of my stocks which has just reported their results.

Starhub
5cts dividend announced.
Net profit fell, EPS drop to 3.39 cts. However, this is because Starhub does not amortize the smartphones sold over 2 years, but recognized it immediately. I expect a much higher EPS over the next few quarters because of this.

A few things to take note for the following quarter:
(i) How loss of EPL will affect its pay TV revenue
(ii) How Next Generation Network will affect Starhub
(iii) How the new law that enables M1 to join the payTV will affect Starhub.

Overall, I will treat this is neutral and within expectations.

The Story of the Marriage Passbook

I was looking through my old emails, and I discovered this interesting mail.
It's very nice and touching, while at the same time, includes the virtue of saving.

Relationship is an investment.  It is wealth in itself.

Enjoy the story:
 
=====================================================================

Marriage Passbook

Jocelyn married William this day. At the end of the wedding party, Jocelyn's mother gave her a newly opened bank saving passbook. With $1000 deposit amount.

Mother: 'Jocelyn, take this passbook. Keep it as a record of your marriage life. When there's something happy and memorable happened in your new life, put some money in.

Write down what it's about next to the line. The more memorable the event is, the more money you can put in. I've done the first one for you today. Do the others with William. When you look back after years, you can know how much happiness you've had.'

Jocelyn shared this with William when getting home. They both thought it was a great idea and were anxious to know when the second deposit can be made.

This was what they did after certain time:

July Portfolio Update

July was rather bullish. Sometimes, I wish it wasn't so bullish so that I can buy stocks that give good dividends on the cheap.

As mentioned in the earlier STI technical update, I expect a 5th wave to be occurring. That means it is still bullish, but a terminal end could be near (not yet). I would have to be more cautious if I want to buy any equity.

July saw me doing 2 things, of which (2) I'm not sure if I have made the right decision.

1) I bought 5 lots of Keppel Green Trust at $1.14. I remember staring at it at $1.02, and hesitated for a while. Subsequently, it climbed back fast to $1.06 and then $1.13 since. From here, and also from staring at SP Ausnet at 92c, I told myself that next time, if I think I like the price, the dividends and what the stock is doing, I should just buy it. There's no point waiting. Instead, divide the accumulation into batches, and enter slowly.

I'm writing a book

Yes, you heard right. I'm currently attempting to write a book on A Level Physics. It's a lot of hard work, and that explains my infrequent updates on this blog. Definitely not easy. I sleep <5 hrs a day to try to write, and think of ways to improve it, to make concepts clearer to the students.

What am I writing
I'm writing on an A level physics study guide. I chose to start on physics because physics is my forte.
After all, I'm among the top 10 scorers for 2001 A level Physics in Singapore, and among the top 39 in Asia for the 2nd Asian Physics Olympiad.

STI Technical Analysis 23rd Jul 2010

This is an update to the wave count done on 6th Jul 2010
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/07/sti-technical-analysis-6th-jul-2010.html

Apparently, I made the mistake of adapting the count to my expectations when I should have followed my timelines.

It appears that STI has completed it's intermediate 4th wave at 2648 on the 25th May 2010.
It remains if STI can break the previous high of 3037 for this high to confirm.

Oceanus -- Overhyped counter?

Recently, Oceanus came under my radar. I was always fascinated by their business of rearing abalones, a Chinese delicacy, in their farms. It had went from a share price of <20c to near 60c, before coming down again to 31.5c recently. It is interesting in its strategy to acquire farms and lands from the centre of the coast, such that it can grow both left and right sides, while its competitors would find it harder to expand because they would have farms separated by Oceanus.

Before I do any impulsive buying (like before), I made it a point to look through some secondary sources (especially the more critical ones instead of the more bullish ones). I digged out the following nuggets of information from value investing forum Afralug Forums (formerly WallStraits forum), which are rather insightful.

The most interesting paragraph is the following:
"The financial statements use fair value accounting which books estimated changes in market value as revenue. While this may comply with accounting rules, it is total nonsense from a cash flow perspective because none of the so-called fair value profits can actually be converted into cash. Only when the actual goods are sold and cash received will the company know what their real profits are."

What fresh grads should or should not do?

I read with interest the following from the CPF IMSAVVY blog on what Fresh Grads and Young People should and should not do:


====================================================
In view of the above, the following is what the young person should do:

1. Save up a war chest of at least 6 months to two years (depending on the stability of the job) of cash.

2. Get the basic insurance because you don’t have money to pay your medical bills for yourself if you are sick.

The following are things that a young people should NOT do (which unfortunately almost all my clients did it all):

Greed Kills -- News Report

Teacher in $130,000 debt over World Cup bets

By MAUREEN KOH

HE was thrilled when Germany beat Australia 4-0 in the Group Stage match at the World Cup last month.

In just under two hours, the first-time bettor made $6,000 - the equivalent of two months' salary for the secondary school teacher.

But by the time Brazil suffered a quarter-final defeat by Holland, John's thrill had turned into shock and fear.

He had chalked up nearly $130,000 losses in bets with three different illegal bookmakers.

The only way for him to pay off his debts was to sell his car.

He started with "small bets between $2,000 and $4,000" for the first two matches, but upped the stakes to as high as $10,000 for each bet.

At his request, we are not using his real name as he risks losing his job.

In the hour-long interview with The New Paper on Sunday earlier this week, John, 28, who has been teaching for two years, pleaded repeatedly: "Please, please don't name the school too.

"I can't afford to lose my job now - my future will be gone."

Gearing of REITs

I have had some questions on what is meant by gearing of REITs and how it could affect a REIT.

What is gearing?
In the most simple terms, gearing is calculated by the amount of liabilities dividends by the total assets valuation.

Let's say for REIT X, the valuation of all its buildings and assets comes out to $1 billion. The total liabilities is $300 million. This will work out to a gearing of 30%. [I stand to be corrected in my concepts. Feel free to comment if my understanding is wrong.]

Different countries would have different policies for the maximum gearing for a REIT. In Singapore, there's a cap of 35% gearing.

STI Technical Analysis 8th Jul 2010

Although STI rallied nicely, I don't have a good feeling about this rally.

Reasons:
1) volume is low. The volume over the past few days rally is below the volume 50 day MA. I will only consider it good volume if it is higher than the 50 day MA (i.e. NOL).

2) STI closed with a hanging man candlestick pattern right at the resistance line and the upper bollinger band. Of course, it would be good to see a confirmation candle tomorrow.

Chart:

STI Technical Analysis 6th Jul 2010

It has been a long time since I looked at the STI chart. Had been really busy.

I took another look at STI, and found a more bullish Elloitt wave count. We could be in a minor wave 4 of Pri 1 instead of having begun on Pri 2.

June Portfolio Update

June was relatively quiet. I warned in the first week of May, a Head and Shoulders pattern was observed at the end of 5 major Elliott Waves. This would signify that our interim top has arrived.

As mentioned in the previous update, May saw STI plunging nearly 300~400 points. For the month of June, STI rebounded higher in a possible wave B, while appearing to start a renewed plunge the last few days, ending the month almost flat.

Half-yearly update on Goal 2010

Half of 2010 has passed! The last time I reviewed myself was my quarter review here.

1) Goal of achieving $1k average dividends per month, i.e. $12k dividends a year
Since the quarter review, I purchased an additional 19 lots of Aztech at 0.24, raising my average to 0.2338 and my total number of lots to 50 lots. In addition, I topped up more AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.205 till I have 70 lots. However, I sold my remaining Singtel lots at $2.97, but failed to buy back at $2.90 :(
I believe I will be able to buy back Singtel at a lower price.

Academician turned Property Millionaire

This is a very interesting article I read from asiaone. It's about a Dr Peter Yee whose never-give-up attitude has led him towards the much-desired path of financial freedom. To him, there is no such thing as failure, just learning. Dr Peter Yee is a property millionaire.



http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Opinion/Story/A1Story20100617-222682.html

STI Technical Analysis 23rd Jun 2010

STI looks dangerously toppish at the moment.

My fresh funds continue to stay out of the market. No point going in if I'm expecting the market to correct deeply.

Chart as shown:

Time and Money

Unless one is born in an ultra rich family, our initial assets are very limited. True wealth can only be gained when we understand how to make the best use of our limited assets. This is the same for businesses as well; if you can make better use of your limited assets than your competitors, you will emerge stronger and better over time.

I forgo my HDB at Buangkok Vale

I mentioned earlier that I had applied under the BTO scheme with my girlfriend for HDB at Buangkok Vale. Well, we forgo our choice because we was given a rather poor queue number, and all of our choice units (about 85+% of the development were ok for us actually) were taken.

Basically, to us, to take the remaining 40 units is akin to scraping the bottom of the barrel. If we had wanted the HDB, we are left with no choice but to fork out $240k for a place where we wouldn't like ==> we don't really see the point.

True, it's cheap relative to resale prices nowadays, but we don't really see the point as said.

STI Technical Analysis 17th June 2010

I have tweaked my Elliott Wave count of STI. It appears that based on Elliott Wave Theory, STI could reach and peak at 2900.

Wave A 2647 - 2820 = 175
Wave B 2820 - 2725 = 95
Wave C 2725 - 2900 = 175

Based on chart, it appears that 2900 is a very possible mega resistance as well.

Floods in Orchard Road

Dr Yaacob Ibrahim, Environment and Water Resources Minister, says: "You can't design for rainfall of this level, it is just too huge. The thing we can accept is that we can only design our canal of a certain size, and at the end of the day, we have to live with some of these occurrences which occur once in 50 years or so. I know it is inconvenient to some Singaporeans, but on the part of PUB and NEA, we'll do our best to alleviate the problem as quickly as possible."

********************************************************************

A deja vu of Nov 2009, where our minister mentioned a flood of once in 50 years too :)

Singtel Technical Analysis 15th June 2010

I have sold Singtel some days back at $2.97.

Singtel went down to $2.88, after which rebounded to $3. I'm still waiting for a lower price to buy in, hopefully before the dividends of 8c.

According to my chart, Singtel is in a rising wedge with declining volume. With resistances by the 200 sma, 200 ema and 100 sma looming up, with the pattern of the bearish rising wedge, it does not seem to bode well for Singtel's price actions. Moreover, the 50 sma is coming into play to resist the price while the $3 psychological barrier seems a little formidable at the moment.

1 million dollars... so what?

This morning, I overheard this in the lift when a colleague was chatting with another over some property price.

"1 million leh! A normal person wouldn't even be able to earn that in one lifetime!"

That set me thinking... that isn't really true! A million dollars over 30 years is about $34k per annum. According to salary.sg, a $34k per annum salary is higher than 18.6% of the population (let's not get started on the distinction between PRs and Citizens).

Just a thought... Sometimes... I wonder why a million dollars is set as a milestone... Supposed a million was defined as 10⁵ or 10⁷ instead of 10⁶, would it still be a milestone? This is financial relativity. But that's beside the point in this post.

Indeed, it appears that most of us do earn the magical million dollar in our lifetime. But so?

FSL Trust -- Some thoughts

FSL trust recently suffered a drop in share price due to bad news from Groda defaulting on their ships, coupled with Daixin Petroleum arresting two of their ships because Groda used them as collateral for buying fuel.

Background of FSL Trust:
FSL is a provider of leasing services on a bareboat charter basis to the international shipping industry. It has a modern, high quality and diverse portfolio of 23 vessels consisting of 7 containerships, 9 product tankers, 3 chemical tankers, 2 dry bulk carriers and 2 crude oil tankers. The average age of the ships is around 5 years.

My quick calculations of their possible dividend yield after taking into account Groda's default:

AIMSAMPIREIT -- Extra ViewPoints

Here, I'm posting some extra viewpoints by Grandmaster89 from CNA forums:

I identified a few key risk in investing in AIMS REIT. I hope the Management can tackle proactively this year.

1) Asset valuation is still decreasing despite the slow recovery in the local economy. I guess asset valuation in industrial properties could be lagging behind the general economy since manufacturers will only recover substantially once spending power has returned back to pre-crisis levels. High unemployment levels isn't helping it at the moment. When manufacturers recover, the demand for logistic and manufacturing hubs will increase hence driving up asset valuation.

Digiland -- Beware

Digiland is the pennies of all pennies to me. Over at Afralug forums, there is a warning by forumer dydx. His posts on this company are really great, and I see no need to rewrite everything myself into a warning.

Digiland is one penny I will avoid at all costs, be it from TA or FA. TA, it's easy to buy but hard to sell. FA, it's market cap is too big, share dilution too big, for a loss making company that's so small.

Below, I will compile some of the critical posts made by forumers at Afralug on this company. It's a buyers beware, punt at your own risks, kind of stock.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By dydx
Digiland International
Judging by the extremely high volume transacted on this counter in the last couple of days - again taking the No.1 position in today's "Top Volume Table"!! - it appears that many people are betting on Digiland International as another "get-rich-quick" investment.

Musings -- Credit Card Debt Defaults

Musings is a category where I will muse about random stuffs 

Recently, I read with interest that the statistics released by the Credit Bureau of Singapore. A whopping 7.16% of those in age group 21 to 29 defaulted their credit card debts. That's about 1 in 14 of us. The news article can be found here.

Being in this age group, I'm indeed extremely appalled. Most of the times, to be eligible for a credit card, one needs a minimum annual salary of $30k, so these are not exactly people who do not earn enough. It really makes me wonder how these people get into such debts. Most of my friends in this age group does not appear to be in credit card debts.

Google Adsense Monetization

For the month of May till now, my adsense click through rate (CTR) for WealthBuch is at 0.21% while the click through rate for timeless info site ExamWorld is at 1.54%. However, the page view for WealthBuch is nearly 7 times of ExamWorld and the Pay Per Click (PPC) is higher.

Somehow, for WealthBuch, this drop in CTR came on the backdrop of me changing the blogskin. My main reason for changing this blogskin was because of the template designer accessible from http://draft.blogger.com, and pointed out to me by La Papillion, which makes it much easier to customize this blog as and when I wanted.

Musings -- Achieving a million dollar portfolio

Musings is a category where I will muse about random stuffs

I remember in my primary school days, there's always essays on "what would you do if I have one million dollars". Somehow, the sample essays, or the essays written, were always about the same content, which are

1) I will donate some money to charity.
2) I will spend the money on a holiday.
3) I will spend the money to buy so and so something.

etc... etc... etc...

Looking back, it does appear interesting that very few essays would include using the amount in an investment portfolio. Perhaps some would say that they will use the money to set up a business, and that's that. I do understand that the main gist of writing such an essay is to train the students in thought processes, language skills as well as composition skills instead of skills of managing finances. Yet, I can't help thinking how this might impact the little minds 20 years later in the area of finance.

STI Technical Analysis 4th June 2010

STI rises on low volume rally. We can see a very very clear volume divergence between prices and volume. This is warning sign number 1.

In addition, for my Elliott Wave count, 3 waves up can be seen from the chart below. The minimum 38.2% retracement for intermediate wave B of Pri II downwards has been achieved. My alternate count would be that this signifies the end of minor a of int wave B. Either way, in the mid term of perhaps a few months, the general direction is down.

With Hungary joining the PIIGS economy, and Dow Jones falling -323 points last night breaking the critical 10000 support, we would very very likely see STI come down to test 2700. Or if we take into account a 3% drop in Dow and Europe, 3% for STI would signify a 84 points drop!!!!

I sold my remaining Singtel lots at $2.97

Admittedly, it's quite tough emotionally to sell when everyone is bullish; it's not easy to be contrarian.

I toyed with the idea of selling both Singtel and Capitaland, while using the profits from Capitaland to cut loss on China Sky today as I'm rather bearish. In the end, I only executed a sell order on Singtel.

My main reason for selling Singtel was simple.

1) I'm bearish about STI index, and Singtel is a major component of it.
2) Based on the Singtel chart I have below, Singtel was on the resistance line yesterday. I sold because of that.
3) From chart again, we see a lower high and lower low. Based on Dow's theory, this is bearish.
4) From chart again, Singtel was at the 38.2% retracement level. On hindsight, Singtel went on to touch the 50% retracement level, and come back down to close at the 38.2% retracement.

May Portfolio Update

May was a month of mayhem :)
Like I warned in the first week of May, a Head and Shoulders pattern was observed at the end of 5 major Elliott Waves. This would signify that our interim top has arrived.

Indeed, May saw STI plunging nearly 300~400 points. My newly loaded Aztech in April saw a decline to 20cents, while my overall portfolio went down by a fair bit.

My only purchase in May was an additional 25 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.205 to make up 70 lots. This adds another 500+ in dividends to my annual dividend amount. As of now, my average monthly dividends amount has achieved $733, getting closer to my first target of $1k average per month.

STI Technical Analysis 27th May 2010

STI staged a nice rebound. My primary count is that we have completed wave A of Primary 2, exactly at the 23.6% retracement line.

The rise from 1455 to 3037 represents my Primary 1 with a 3rd wave extension. Primary 2 begun at 3037, and would usually achieve at least 50% retracement. That could possibly mean STI to reach 2243 in a few months time after this technical wave B rebound.

STI Technical Analysis 21st May 2010

It looks like my maximum downside target has been reached. That was where I entered AIMSAMPIREIT. AIMS isn't an STI component stock, so it will not be affected too much. On hindsight, I should perhaps enter STI ETF instead for a probable 300 points rise (30 cents on STI ETF).

Mentioned in an earlier post on 2nd May 2010 was a mini Head and Shoulders. A larger Head and Shoulders formation appear to be forming. With this expectations, there is high probability of the market bouncing up from here towards 2945 (>61.8% retracement), a previous high.

Purchased some AIMSAMPIREIT

STI went to hit 2676, very near to the 2675 low last hit on 9th Feb 2010. I was contemplating whether to buy in some blue chips to trade, but in the end, I decide to follow my original plan of a dividend portfolio.

I added 25 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at $0.205 to my portfolio, reaching a total of 70 lots.

My reasons for purchase were that

STI Rebounding time?

STI looks set for a possible rebound. I counted 5 waves down, and STI has touched the 200 SMA.

My expectations is that if it does break, it will not break this 200 SMA convincingly as this is possibly a 5th wave of some small degree. The alternate count would be a 3rd wave extension, the 3rd of 3rd wave. A technical rebound should be in the works, but it will just remain as it is, a technical rebound. I'm bearish bias at the moment since the mini Head and Shoulders breakdown.

In addition, it looks as if a bigger Head and Shoulders might be forming on the weekly chart. Will have to monitor. This right shoulder should be the cap to any technical rebound by STI, possibly around 2945.

I don't expect STI's move down to go past the 2nd red line before a 3-waves move up for the technical rebound.

My cash level has increased further to 8.45%. However, there's not much that I want to purchase yet, so I shall await better prices for some of my targets patiently.

AIMSAMPIREIT 4Q2010 Results

Basically, this is another undervalued gem in my opinion, in the leagues of Saizen.
My earlier write up of this REIT is here

The results was a nice surprise for me in terms of the DPU. It was slightly above my expectations. Earlier, I bought based on a conservative estimate of 0.45 cts DPU, although my calculations showed at least 0.5 cts DPU. The surprise was that DPU came out to be 0.5376 cts, giving me a nice dividend of $241.92 for 45 lots payable in June 2010.

This works out to be about 10% yield based on my entry price of 0.215 on a low gearing of 29%, among the lowest in the industrial REIT sector.

The NAV remains at 31c. There's also no management fee bonus paid out ==> it's only paid when the DPU increases by at least 2.5%. Have to monitor to check that management does not increase gearing unnecessarily and dangerously to increase DPU so as to get fee bonus.

This is a short post to update as I'm really really tied up with work these few weeks :(

Saizen REIT 3Q2010 results

I have to say that their report is very clear, completed with a nice content page and explanation of the results, which was within expectations. Some summary of their results:

1) All CMBS loans except the mega YK Shintoku loan has been repaid via either bank borrowings or cash. As for the YK Shintoku loan, the loan servicer is still in process of formulating  acourse of action.

2) Saizen has commenced accumulating cash in May 2010 for resumption of distribution. Good news!

3) On top of the JPY 1 billion loan of YK JOF mentioned in my earlier post on Saizen, another JPY 2 billion loan for YK Shinzan has been drawn successfully.

4) YK Shintoku's CMBS defaulted loan remains at JPY 7.7 billion

STI - Cup And Handle Breakdown?

Suddenly thought I saw this pattern on STI... A bullish cup and handle formation that broke down.

When a supposedly bullish formation breaks down, it's very bearish bias. Similarly, when a supposedly bearish formation breaks up, it's very bullish bias.

To me, the chart below is rather bearish if it's true... couple with my expected EW Primary 2 count, I have more reasons to be on the more bearish side.

How Companies Calculate Depreciation

Basically, there are two possible ways for companies to calculate depreciation.
1) Straight line depreciation method, or
2) Accelerated depreciation method.

Straight line depreciation is calculated by spreading the asset cost evenly over the assumed lifespan of the fixed asset. Starhub, a telco in Singapore, uses this.

Accelerated depreciation is done by expensing a large part of the cost at the beginning of the life of the fixed asset, and lesser at the end. Cars in general undergo such depreciation; the moment you buy a car and use it for a very short time, the value would have depreciated by more than a proportionate amount.

STI Technical Update (6th May 2010)

Although I was about to sleep, I keep having this nagging feeling that I need to share my latest thoughts on a possible wave 3 extension of my expected A wave.

In this scenario, it would be very bad... Wave 3 is the strongest wave, and wave 3 of 3 will definitely smash most supports like bean curd.

The below shows my chart and my expected wave counts:

StarHub 2010 First Quarter Results

StarHub Reports 2010 First Quarter Results

* Operating Revenue Increased 5% To S$557 Million
* FCF Per Diluted Share Increased 4% To 6.97 Cents
* Interim Quarterly Dividend Of 5.0 Cents Per Share

Singapore, 6 May 2010 – StarHub Ltd today announced its results for the quarter ended 31 March 2010. Total operating revenue increased 5% to S$557 million from S$531 million. The quarter saw a high post-paid mobile net add of 27,000 customers. The higher investment cost for acquisition and retention for smartphone customers resulted in the Group’s EBITDA contracting to S$118 million. Consequently, profit before taxation was at S$53 million year-on-year (YoY) and net profit after tax decreased to S$43 million. Free cash flow at S$120 million was 4% higher compared to last year’s S$115 million. Capital expenditure was 4% lower at S$49 million compared to the same period last year.

STI Technical Update

Perhaps we have already entered the downtrend.

A recap of the A-wave downwards (assuming it's an A wave after 5 waves up) taken from wikipedia:

Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.

Investing Strategy

Previously, I pointed out that I think STI could have topped. It may or may have not, but as concluded, scraping the bottom of the barrel isn't very ideal...

With this, my strategy for incoming salaries and dividends remains the same: Accumulate the cash, and only enter when the skies are clear.

Supposed I can keep my hands away, I shall be able to achieve 10% cash by the end of June 2010. That's if I don't grow itchy fingers :x

Then again, what's to stop me if I think there's sufficient value and safety margin to enter? Saizen at 0.165, AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.215, Starhub at $2.15, Singtel at <$3?

In a bull market, most people become a genius with the Midas touch. I don't want to fall into the trap. Have to exercise a lot of caution from now on...


P.S. This post is very short because I have no idea what to write next, or what stocks to look at next. Basically, it sums up my actions and thoughts now.

STI Updates -- We could have topped

As we climb a wall of worry, the risks of entering gets higher and higher.

It appears that the STI 3000 level is getting very hard to breach... My Elliott Wave count has completed it's intermediate 5th wave; 5 waves for this 5th impulse wave has been counted.

Of course, I do not doubt that my counts are wrong, of if there could be a wave extension for this 5th wave. To me, Elliott Waves go hand in hand with economics news; I use world news in an attempt to justify the preferred count, to fine tune my count.

My chart:

April Portfolio Update

April portfolio consists of Saizen Warrants Purchase at 0.075 and a 2nd round of loading of Aztech at 0.24.
This is the month where Starhill announced results of dividends $190. Starhill also announced a new CEO and the purchase of Malaysian properties, which is yield accretive.

A number of my holdings went XD, Capitaland, ST Engg, Aztech, which help contribute to their recent downturn.

Financial Relativity

As I progress further along my journey, I begin to understand the concept of financial relativity. In a nutshell, financial relativity is how much we think or feel is a large sum of money relative to our mindset. $10,000 to a billionaire is probably equal to about $100 to a millionaire, which is probably equal to $1 to a thousandaire.

So... how much is a large sum? Is $100 large? I remember feeling that it was a huge sum when I was serving the army with a monthly allowance of $500+. $100 could make a significant difference in my assets for months, or so I thought. But now, I would spend it on meals with my girlfriend quite frequently as it is no longer very large to me. It is fairly insignificant to my assets, and feels perfectly normal to me.

Starhill Quarterly Results

SINGAPORE, 26 April 2010 – YTL Pacific Star today announced that Starhill Global REIT’s 1Q 2010 income to be distributed was S$18.4 million, 2.0% higher than that of S$18.0 million in 1Q 2009. Distribution Per Unit (DPU) (post-rights) for the period 1 January to 31 March 2010 was 0.95 cents, 2.2% higher compared to the restated 0.93 cents1 achieved for the previous corresponding period. On an annualised basis, the latest distribution represents a yield of 6.88% {based on 56 cents close on 31st March 2010}

=====================================================

20 lots gives me $190.

My Maths Equation to Increasing Networth!

To me, at my late twenties age, I find that to massively increase our networth, three factors are extremely crucial. They are:
(i) Income
(ii) Savings
(iii) Investments

The three factors above are all equally important. My mathematical formula for gaining networth is:

Gross Gain in networth = Income * Percentage Savings Invested * (1 + Returns on Investments) + Current Networth * Returns on Investments


*Edit: Percentage savings invested as suggested by LP.

Bought some more Aztech

I bought 19 lots of Aztech today after my late night review on it last night.

On hindsight, it was fortunate I managed to review it last night, to capture the panic sell today. I'm still cautiously optimistic about the prospects of this company.

Why 19 lots? Because I had 31 lots originally, and this top up my holdings to a nice round number of 50 lots, and an additiontal $4.56k was pumped in.

Aztech 1st Quarter Results

The Group registered an overall turnover of S$49.70 million and net profit of S$1.56 million for Q1 2010. Despite an increase in revenue from Electronics business, the Group saw a 26.5% decline in overall turnover compared to the same period last year mainly attributable to the lower revenue recognition for Materials Supply business after completion of phases I and II of the supply contract.

Want Success? Work hard for it!

Recent times, I have come across people who talked about getting out of the rat's race, who talked about being business owners employing "smarter people". They dream and talk lots about the concept of financial freedom and financial abundance, yet I have no idea why they believe that they can achieve so without working hard towards it.

In other words, they simply dream and believe that they can achieve it, but took no actions or little actions towards it. It really beats me...

STI Updates

We had some interesting developments for STI last week, especially on Friday.

STI broke new highs, and broke past the 3000 barrier, before some retracement now. Common technical analysis would tell that after breaking past a resistance, the chart would usually come back to test the resistance-turned-support region... and if succeed, will likely proceed to head higher.

Being Paid for your time?

I have to admit, I'm still stuck at being paid for my time. But while being paid for my time, I still harbour the thoughts of.... being paid by projects (or results) as well...

While high but unstable income (like tuition) is desirable, I believe the next stage would be project based work (on top of leveraging on others).

Time Bomb Ticking -- STI 3000

STI breached 3000 barrier as expected.

This bullishness was first detected during an EW recount earlier:
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/02/sti-elliott-wave-update-bullish-bias.html

Then, with the updated count on 5th Apr, a target of near 3150 was estimated:
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/04/sti-elliott-wave-count-update-5th-apr.html

Novice investment fund outperforms big guns

A testament to prudent fundamental investing.

Guess I got a lot more to learn from then... especially the sentence

'Benjamin Graham said you buy a company at two-thirds its 'net net working capital'. It's very stringent,' Mr Wong said.

You are the General of your money

We can draw many parallels between money management and management of an armed force. To me, the money we have in our hands is like our current troops.

The money that we are earning from active income is the additional troops we are recruiting.

WHY DIDN'T I BUY/SELL THIS STOCK!

HL Asia.... ARGH!!!
COSCO!!!! ARGH!!!!!!

WHY!!!??!! WHY DIDN'T I BUY THESE WINNERS AT THE LOWS!!!!
WHY DIDN'T I SELL THESE LOSERS AT THEIR PEAKS???!

Do you often get these thoughts?
I'm guilty of it at times. But I'm growing out of it.

Singapore Telecommunications Sector

Telecommunications

IDA mulling introduction of fourth mobile operator
Analyst: Jonathan Koh

Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) is considering parceling out the final fourth slot of 3G spectrum, which was not taken up during 3G auction in 2001 and was left unused for the past nine years. This could pave the way for IDA to bring in a fourth mobile operator.

My Personal Goal 2010 Updates (Quarter Review)

A quarter of 2010 has passed! The last time I reviewed myself was right after Chinese New Year in February.

1) Goal of achieving $1k average dividends per month, i.e. $12k dividends a year
I purchased 31 lots of Aztech and 45 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.215 since my last review. In addition, I have bought in another 60 lots of Saizen warrants with the intention to exercise the warrants in the near future, and sold 2 lots of Singtel at 3.12 to average down my 2 lots to 2.89.

Also, I have combined my investing and dividend baskets into one basket ==> long term basket.

STI Elliott Wave Count Update (5th Apr 2010)

STI achieved a new high today, with a certain degree of euphoria. It does appear that the 5th wave has commenced, but when it will end, I'm not sure yet. The bollinger band does look like it's closing up, signifying that the end of this 5th wave could be near, although not quite yet.

In my chart below, it's a repeat of the bullish bias wave count in an earlier post. The looming 3000 resistance looks rather insurmountable at first, leading me to believe we could finish the 5th wave before crossing 3000 convincingly. However, there's still the possibility that 3000 can be crossed. (Sounds like talking rubbish right?.... but this is a talk on probability.... :P)

STI Quick Technical Analysis (5th Apr Morning)

STI is at a new high finally... This satisfies my minimum criteria of wave 5 in an earlier post:
STI Elliott Wave Update -- Bullish Bias?

On the other hand, this new high might just be signifying an expanded flat, although it looks unlikely. I'm a little blur on why there are 5 waves down on the daily chart, then 5 waves up again. The only reason I could think of is that the mini waves on the daily chart for STI might not be accurate enough to be used for wave counting. It appears that the usage of Bollinger bands is more accurate for minor wave counts.

Saizen REIT Warrants Purchase

I didn't think I was going to update my portfolio so fast...

I loaded 60 lots of Saizen REIT Warrants at 0.075 today. The expiry date is in 2012, but I may convert earlier than that.

Noble Group Technical Analysis (31st Mar 2010)

This is just a follow up chart on Noble since my previous post...

The rising wedge has been broken with volume. And yesterday, Noble broke the 100 dma.

March 2010 Portfolio

March went past rather smoothly (or rather, stagnantly)

My portfolio changes consist of an additional purchase of AIMSAMPIREIT after some calculations of their yield. In addition, I will consider myself as having 1 bonus lot of Breadtalk at 0.37 since I have 5 to begin with.

As I progress along this journey, I've decided to combine my investing and dividends basket into one basket since they are basically quite similar. That means I will only have 2 baskets from now on: Long term holdings and Trading... And as time continues to tick, I'll be getting busier and busier, so I guess the amount of longer term holdings will increase more proportionately than any possible trading...

Saizen REIT Analysis Part 2

Saizen's Debts

As of now, debts have been repaid (the CMBS loans) for YK Shinzan, YK Kokkei and YK Shingen. For YK Keizan, it is expected to be finished in payments by Apr 2010. The main worry is the defaulted loan of nearly 7 billion yen in YK Shintoku, although it appears to be much less of a concern now as refinancing seems more and more viable.

As of 2Q2010, Saizen has about 15.5 bil of debts and 42 bil in property, giving us a 36.9% gearing at the moment. This has reduced a lot, and is starting to look more favourably to me than before.

My initial thoughts on Saizen REIT

Saizen REIT Initial Analysis

After some calculations last night, I discovered that their net income from operations per annum is only about 2+ cents per share if none of the warrants are exercised, and 1.55 cts per share if all the warrants are exercised.

Let's take an average of 1.8 cts if half the warrants are exercised. This gives us an net income from operations of 10.9% on the unit price.

A distribution of say 90% will give about 9.8% dividend yield! Sounds exciting? Let's see:

My First FA Purchase: Breadtalk

My first purchase based solely on my Fundamental Analysis, was the stock of Breadtalk. That was after I had put an amount into SPH, and left with little funds.

At that time I lacked confidence in myself. I was afraid of the market. Hence, with my limited funds, I bought a mere 5 lots of Breadtalk at 0.37 (although I could afford a max of 10 at that time). $1850 was the cost. Jan 09 was the month. Breadtalk did went down to 30 cts before coming back up, but I had no money nor confidence to buy more at that time.

Are you entrapped in the Market Box?

Personally, I think that I was ensnared by the evils of the market when I first dabbled in it.You know are trapped in the market box when you are constantly anxious about your purchase... would it fall? Would it rise fast? Would the company fail?

You know you are trapped when you need to keep looking at the stock price every few minutes.

You know you are trapped when your life just revolves around it, neglecting your work (if u trade part time) or other things in life in the process.

A Wealthy Mindset

This is a very nice youtube video I found. It's about being paid for your results instead of your time.

I'm tired....

I'm starting to tire... It seems to me that some signs of exhaustion is present in my on this journey towards financial freedom ever since I started this blog on my progress. Perhaps I really need a little break... One thing is for sure though... my networth is moving in the correct direction.... 

The journey towards financial success is indeed a marathon; there's little point exhausting all the energy in the initial stages of the journey.

Just Do It!

This catchy phrase from Nike applies for many things in our life, especially in the area of starting a business. At times, I do see people claiming that they need to think through thoroughly, need to plan more meticulously or they need more considerations, before they can decide whether to start doing something, say starting a business.

My take: By the time one finished thinking and planning (that's if you finish because it will never be enough), others would already be way ahead of you! Not that I have a business myself (I don't consider tuition a business), but at least I jumped into tuition and advertised for myself without going through an agent. I just did it.

Aztech Technical Analysis (19th March 2010)

A nice rally by STI today, with penny tech stocks on the bull.

My Aztech has risen to a high of 0.265 today, before coming back to end at 0.255.
To me, I was thinking initially whether to sell Aztech to take a quick profit... In the end, I decided against it for three reasons:

Reasons for AIMSAMPIREIT Purchase

This AIMSAMPIREIT is the former MI-REIT which almost went bankrupt and had to do placements and issue rights to finally stay above water.

So on the initial look, it might look like a shady investment in a company whose management might be extremely bad because of the saga. However, on deeper exploration, this REIT appears to be offering itself at an extremely reasonable price.

My Dividends that are coming

It's about a year since I have embarked on this journey of trading investing playing with fire buying stocks. I have made mistakes as seen in my trading baskets in red... LC Dev, Hor Kew, Berlian Laju, China Sky, Cosco.... If only those funds in these counters were placed in dividend counters.... Ah... Hindsight is always so accurate...

The rest of my dividend/investing stocks are more or less green, or at worst, flat, at the moment. Indeed, it appears that I have more 'luck' in choosing such stocks. 

The previous time I made such a similar post on coming dividends can be found here. This time, I'm making this again to help track the coming dividends as I have loaded much more on dividend stocks than before.

Day Trading or Trade on multi month cycles or Investing Part II

Earlier, I had a blog post on which style of playing the market I should adopt.

As I proceed on, I become more and more convinced that a longer term approach is more feasible for me. Although I do see people earning nearly $6k extra monthly by day trading even with a full time job, I'm not sure if they can focus or are focussing on their day jobs. I know I can't.

While it's true that you don't need your job if you can consistently profit near to $6k monthly just by trading alone, that isn't really the desired path I want to take for reasons below:

Portfolio Update:

I've loaded 45 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT this morning at a price of $0.215... This represents an additional $9.7k put into the market.

It's a primarily FA, very little TA, purchase. According to my calculations, it should yield a miminum of 8.8% p.a., assuming a payout of only 1.9 cts DPU p.a. However, I'm expecting near 2.0 cts DPU, but I shall be on the more conservative side at the moment when making my decision.

Noble Group Technical Analysis (12th March 2010)

Noble is looking more and more bearish to me even though it broke a new high.

To me, it appears that a potential double top formation could be formed. In addition, it also appears that a bearish rising wedge is in the works.



Below is my simple chart on Noble:

Term Insurance

I signed up for a term insurance recently from Great Eastern covering me for SGD$200K upon death, and covering hospitalisation for critical illnesses. The cost to me is $564 annually as I pay per year. It's about what I can afford right now without seriously slowing my journey towards financial freedom. I'm a believer of buy term invest the rest.

A quick summary of my protection, not that I have a lot:

1) CPF 40k insurance
2) Great Eastern HealthShield (for Hospitalisation only)
3) Great Eastern Smart Living Term Insurance
4) Company Group Insurance

A little insight into a common week of my life

So there are 7 days, 24 hours a day, in a week. Although I really wish I have more than 24 hours a day and more than 7 days a week, in reality, it's not possible. Unless perhaps someone invents a time machine so that I can do what Hermione did in Harry Potter, that is, go back in time again for a concurrent lecture.

If you are merely looking for talks on the market, you might want to skip this section.


This is a little post on a common week of my life now. It should be interesting for me to look back in time at this post 10 years down the road, that's if, blogger is still around. Perhaps one day, I should see my time allocation like how I see my investments; put them into an excel chart.

STI Updates -- My Wave IV

This is an update to my Elliott Wave count for STI.

It appears to me that the C wave of my expected 4th wave could probably end soon as STI approaches trendline and fibonacci 78.6% resistance at 2890 region. I doubt that STI would have the strength and power to carry through these resistances. My major count can be found here, and the chart below is my fourth wave.

HealthWay Technical Analysis 11th March 2010

Technically..... for Healthway,

MFI did not make an equal or new high, and we had a gravestone doji yesterday confirmed today with a black marubozo... The volume shoot up is also with low volume as compared to the previous meteoric rise from 0.115 to 0.185 post rights.

The chart is as seen:

Aztech: Diversification or Diworsification?

SINGAPORE, 10 March 2010 – Singapore Exchange Mainboard-listed Aztech Group Ltd (“Aztech”) today announced that its subsidiary Shiro Corporation Pte Ltd (“Shiro”) has ventured into the canned and frozen food business. Shiro targets the retail and food services market in Singapore and overseas with the mission of supplying restaurant grade quality food under the brand name of Jade or "Yu Huang" 《玉皇》.

************************************************


The concern now is whether Aztech's bold moves into areas outside of their area of competence, i.e. Marine Logistics, Materials Supply, and now F&B sector, is a matter of diversification or diworsification. The new diversification was perhaps expected on hindsight, as Aztech was seeking aggressively to enter a new area as seen in their consideration to enter the property segment, but backed out in the end.

Millionaire Scrooge?

This thought came to me as I was eating at Pepper Lunch with my girlfriend. A dinner at Pepper Lunch costs around $22.80, compared to about max $10 for a simple rice with meat and vege plus drinks from the drinks store at a coffee shop. For that Pepper Lunch meal, I could have eaten 2 dinners at the coffee shop!

In the quest towards financial freedom, there are times where we consider whether we should spend on this... or spend on that... In short, putting it in nice terms, we are considering whether the thing we want to buy is a need or a want. We think, we ponder, and we calculate to see if buying it would delay our quest towards financial freedom. But are we going to do that forever just to reach or maintain that magical millionaire status? Would we want to be a millionaire scrooge?

Portfolio Update: Sold half of Singtel

A short update that I sold 2 lots out of my 4 lots of Singtel this morning at a price of $3.12.

*But it went up to close at $3.15 :(  *

The reason why I sold is I want to average down my original 2 lots, and reduce a little bit of exposure to the market at this stage in the rally. My opinion remains that there could be a correction soon because of

1) Rising Wedge
2) 5 waves down and 3 waves up
3) Technical indicators: MFI

STI Updates -- Correction Coming?

STI rallied over the last few days. However, although I was more bullish bias, counting the more mini waves appear to be on the bearish side at the moment. In addition, different chart indicators and trendlines also display resistances on the Straits Time Index as well. The STI Elliott Wave structure seems to be rather complete this time too.

Portfolio Update (6th March 2010)

I purchased 31 lots of Aztech at the price of 23 cents. Aztech will be put into my dividends basket for its 7% yield, although I'm in it for growth investing as well. It's a mixture. Having just crossed the $500 mark in terms of average monthly dividend amount, this purchase pushes the average further upwards.

Aztech -- Reasons for Purchase Part 2

I have decided to include part 2 on my reasons for purchasing Aztech after MusicWhiz's guidance on more matters. This part 2, is however, done more thoroughly after my purchase, although some of the considerations were lingering on my mind when I made the purchase.

The first major issue that was raised was the debt level of Aztech. This was pointed out to me before by grandmaster89 of CNA forums too, so it was on my mind when I looked through Aztech's past company's announcements.

Genting Technical Analysis

The following is a rudimentary attempt on counting the Elliott Waves for Genting Singapore.

Although it is said that because Elliott Waves work on mass market psychology, it is usually not accurate for individual counters. However, with 12 billion float in the market at such a 'cheap' price compared to most other blue chips, Elliott Waves could possibly work...

The Genting Fairytale -- The Sequel

The killing machine has started its motors, and yet the fairytale continues. Genting bounced up from the 90 cents support towards 98 cents resistance in a technical rebound.

"SEE!!! GENTING IS STILL BULLISH!! DON'T WORRY! $5 IS COMING! BUYYYYYYYY!!!!!!"

The bear trap has been set. The evil market makers grinned as they continue to distribute their rubbish while watching them being snapped up like hotcakes.

Time Management for Achieving Massively

Warning: Moderately long post.

Recently, I get people asking me, why do I seem to be doing so many things at the same time, and still accomplish them. They tell me they are already tired out at work, and by the time they go home, they simply have so many other things to do that they have no time to check charts for TA, check fundamentals for FA, write a blog, read a book, etc.

Well, normally, my answer to them would be, it's at the expense of my sleep and free rest time. But in fact, I'm still able to have sufficient sleep and rest, yet complete my engineering work, give tuition, write this blog, analyse my portfolio and go for my regular exercises on top of spending time with my fiancée to be.[I know if my friends are reading this post, and know it is me, they will strangle me :x]

Aztech Group -- Reasons for purchase

Warning: very long post below

Incorporated in 1986 and listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, Aztech is now a dynamic international group with key activities in Electronics Design & Manufacturing, Materials Supply and Marine Logistics. The Group operates in six countries over three continents. In Sep 2009, Aztech suggested to diversify it's revenue source by expanding into property development with Aztech Property. Recently, Aztech Electronics launched a new subsidiary called Aztech E-lite Pte Ltd, focussing and leveraging on the strengths of the Electronics segment to branch into the LED market.

In the earlier post, I mentioned that I bought into Aztech Group at 0.23. In this post, I will delve into the reasons why I bought this stock very briefly.

Bought Aztech Group

Bought 31 lots of Aztech today at 0.23.

Why the odd number? Because I had bought 30 lots, then there was 1 sore lot left at 0.23 getting in the way. So I cleared it for the fun of it :) Also, there's a cum dividend coming on 23rd Apr 2010.

However, there were still constant sellers at 0.23, so it wasn't cleared in the end. Grrr.....

STI Elliott Wave Update -- Bullish Bias?

I had a second look at STI from the knowledge of Elliott Waves I gained over the past year, and this time round, there's actually a more bullish wave count. Well, perhaps I could still be wrong to change to a more bullish stance after being bearish for so long. But I have reasons to believe my previous counts may not be as accurate as this latest one.

In my updated count below, from the peak in 2007, we might have actually completed 3 waves down, in terms of A, B, C. I have labelled what I thought were the subwaves. The only concern I have here is that the wave iii of C could be way too long, which led me to check up even more on Elliott Waves...

A Little Story of an Unknown Millionaire

This is a short story of an unknown millionaire and his struggles to become one. He's the dad of a friend of mine. His networth is estimated to be a few million at 60+ years old, and his path wasn't easy.

In the 1970s, this chap was just in his early twenties. Fresh from China, he went to Hong Kong to seek for fortunes. At that time, he was merely a penniless bloke. His first job was being a coolie, and was paid less than 2 SGD a day.

The Power of Leverage

Introduction

I recently thought of a "sad" fact. Suppose I keep to current lifestyle and succeed in increasing my networth by an average of $100k per year from both savings and investments, I would still need 10 years to reach $1 mil, or 30 years to reach $3 mil! While the millionaire goal is achievable, the speed is slow. That's the motivation for me to write this article, which took me quite a few hours!

So, how is it possible that there are people who managed to achieve the multi-millionaire status while young when they are not the the soccer players in EPL, the basketball slam dunkers in NBA or any of the hot celebrities?

The answer is leverage.

STI Updates

In summary, I'm expecting STI to top up soon before rushing downwards in a fast and swift motion.

Longer analysis: STI could be resisted by the 34 EMA and 55 EMA after closing directly at it. The 100 MA, 21 EMA and 13 EMA comes into play as well into the white candle's body. The bullish close yesterday led me to believe that STI might have a little bit of upside left. However, other factors led me to believe that whatever upside left is limited, and any fresh long entry now would really be squeezing out the last drop of juice from the lemon.

Starhub's Potential for growth

Background:
Starhub signed a network leasing agreement back in 2002 with Singtel when it merged with SCV, which relegated StarHub to the sidelines of the lucrative corporate broadband market.

'What made it (the agreement) worse was that it contractually prevented StarHub from taking the benefits of a high-speed cable broadband network beyond the residential community,' Mr Clontz said.

While StarHub could choose to lay its own cables to link up non-residential buildings, the prohibitive cost meant the firm largely stayed within its consumer boundaries in its first decade. However, the operator will get a chance to banish old demons come end-2012 when Singapore's new fibre-optic broadband highway - dubbed the Next-Gen NBN (National Broadband Network) - becomes fully operational.

Portfolio Updates

With the recent Operation Fund Switch 1, my dividends basket has changed a little, taking of macquarie international infrastructure fund and moving the funds to Starhub at its 200 SMA.
For the investing and trading baskets, there's not much difference...

The losses in the trading basket serves to remind me of my naivete in the first year of my journey towards freedom. I guess I have much more to learn.

Fortunately for me, China Sky has not been hit by any scandals to cause it to suspend or delist :(
Hopefully it will go back up for me. The NAV is much higher, and its highest price was >$2, but then again, we wouldn't know if the accounts are true.

STI Updates

The correction came as expected... How nice... if only life was so perfect....

From the chart below, we can see that STI has reached near to the 61.8% retracement level... While STI could theoretically reach 2700 before retracing, I doubt so. Let's see how...

To me, wave b of ii could have completed. How about wave c of ii (upwards) soon to 2850?

Why get a job?

Although I'm employed with a job.... sometimes I wonder... why do we get a job? Why do we need a job? Income? Stability? Experience?

Getting a job is like... you trade your time for money. You are paid for the time you are working. Sounds good?

BUT!

You are paid only when you are working! Schools have been brainwashing us since young that it is reasonable and intelligent to succeed only when we are studying, which is true in a sense. However, we brought this to society thinking that it is too reasonable and intelligent to earn an income only when we are working! How untrue this is! Isn't it better to be paid as well when you are not working???

The Genting Fairytale

Today, we saw Genting crashing past the $1 psychological support and the $0.98 at the 200MA region.

Indicators does look oversold... so a technical rebound could be due soon... But is that all to meet the eyes?

To me, the rise of Genting's stock price was a fairy tale played by market makers to lure more and more "investors" in. Whether it is true remains to be seen... this is just my hypothesis which stopped me from buying in the first place...

The beginnings of the fairytale:
The fairytale begun long ago when Genting secured the licence to operate a casino in Singapore. Genting's stock price bottomed at 40 cents on 28th Oct 2008 with a hammer candlestick.

STI Updates -- Dojis

So many bulls running around these few days till I wanted to turn super bull with my opportunity funds. However a look at the STI chart still doesn't seem so good.

The past 2 trading days, we can see from the chart that STI has two dojis.

My Personal Goal 2010 Updates

We are now fresh into the Tiger Year! A quick look at my Goal 2010 and how far I have progressed:


1) Goal of achieving $1k average dividends per month, i.e. $12k dividends a year
With the divestment of MIIF and into Starhub, my average monthly dividends from my dividend portfolio is now $506.50. It has crossed the $500 mark.

If I include my 2 lots Capitaland (10.5 cts latest), 5 lots Breadtalk (1 cent) and 4 lots Singtel (6.2 cents) into the equation, it would be $569 on average per month.

Student on winning stock market streak, then he loses dad's life savings

It's an article by New Paper in 2007, but I think it is appropriate to post it out again:



BURNT BY STOCKS
I LOST $700,000 IN 3 MONTHS

Student on winning stock market streak, then he loses dad's life savings

• OCT LAST YEAR: Just a student in Australia, he makes $80,000 from trading

• DEC LAST YEAR: Back in S'pore after exams, he role-plays trading & makes an imaginary $100,000 on 1st day & $110,000 on 2nd day

• DEC-JAN: Convinces dad to give him life savings of $300,000. But he loses it & the $80,000

• Feb: Girlfriend dumps him. He stops trading for 2 weeks.

• FEB: He puts money on stocks of 9 companies when market reopens after Chinese New Year

Cerebos Pacific Ltd Part 2

This is part 2 of my write up on Cerebos Pacific. Part 1 is here.

Marketing Strategy
I shall comment mainly on the marketing strategy of Cerebos Pacific in Singapore.

Since young, I have been bombarded by advertisements from their flagship Brands Essence of Chicken that drinking it will lead to better results. This preys heavily on the 'kiasu' nature of Singaporeans in the academic arena. For the non-Singlish lingo trained readers, 'kiasu' literally means afraid to lose.

Fact is, to me, their essence of chicken does work. It does make me more awake and makes me concentrate better in exams. {Not advertisements hor}

As for the other brands in Singapore, I have to admit I didn't really see any adverts on them. Perhaps there are, but none had a lasting impression on me I suppose. However, Woh Hup sauces, being in a rather defensive area, would perhaps not need as much adverts. As mentioned in their report, the recession actually boosted their sale of sauces because people tend to eat more at home during recessions.

Cerebos Pacific Ltd Part 1

Recently, I came across this interesting company, Cerebos Pacific. To me, it appears to be a good company for long term investments, both for capital gains and for dividend yield. However, my understanding of true fundamental analysis isn't strong. This company caught my eyes (like Breadtalk) because it sells stuff that I use frequently, stuff that I know, stuff that is commonly found in the kitchen.

For me, I'm starting to like buying into companies I can see in my everyday life. Examples are Starhub, Singtel, SPH, Breadtalk and SingPost. This is one of my criteria nowadays before delving further into it's financial statements and technical charts. Another good example would be Aztech, of which we can see their products in Harvey Norman and Challenger. Cerebos Pacific came across as interesting to me because of their products, which I use frequently.

Rich Dad's CashFlow Quadrant for me

The CashFlow Quadrant was created by Robert Kiyosaki from the Rich Dad Company.

The Ascii representation of the CashFlow Quadrant is as follows:

E | B
-----
S | I

In summary,
E stands for Employee
B stands for Business Owners
S stands for Self-employed
I stands for Investors

The cashflow quadrant organises the ways in which we can obtain income into just 4 categories. Most of us earns from the E quadrant, that is, being an employee. Some of the others will earn from the rest of the quadrants. They are just different methods of income generation, even though eventually, money is still the same.

Your Luck in 2010 (based on Chinese Zodiac)

A happy Chinese New Year to all readers!
May you be prosperous, healthy and successful in the year of the Tiger!

{I'm born in the year of the Boar! Huat ah!}


Rat
The Rat is strongly affected by the star of love and romance this year, which brings distractions to the work front. This star can bring a lot of marital happiness and good relationships so long as the Rat does not succumb to the effects of the External Flower of Romance star, which affects everyone. In order to ensure that good relationships come into your life, it is important that you attract legitimate love and romance luck. The Rat also gains education luck, which is very fortunate for those still in school. Two unlucky stars affect the Rat in 2010 and these are the 3 killings and the Natural Disaster star.

A suitable amulet is to hang up the Vairocana Plague on the north wall.

Ox
2010 brings the Ox a special kind of good fortune with the Big Auspicious Star only to be hampered by the presence of the Illness Star. The energy of the Ox is low this year, which is only to be expected since it is in side conflict with the Tai Sui. This results in the Ox enjoying excellent success and wealth and career luck, at the expense of their health. So as to avoid obstacles brought about by the Tai Sui, they should invoke some divine help. All Oxen must strengthen their health luck in 2010 otherwise they will miss out on a years worth of good luck.

A suitable amulet is to display the Antahkarana Wu Luo in the Northeast