Wednesday, July 7, 2010

STI Technical Analysis 6th Jul 2010

It has been a long time since I looked at the STI chart. Had been really busy.

I took another look at STI, and found a more bullish Elloitt wave count. We could be in a minor wave 4 of Pri 1 instead of having begun on Pri 2.
How this is going to play out, I'm not exactly very sure. Whether minor wave 4 has finished, I'm not very sure too as I simply don't have the time to go deep into the hourly charts to confirm this count. However, although it is bullish, an interim top appears to be forming again.

My chart without the usual indicators:

Why this count? It's because I took into account a few common behaviour of waves, especially wave 4.
Waves 4 are usually very long, draggy and not volatile, with lower volume overall. This forms the basis of the 4th wave labelled as 3(iii)[4]

The current market is also about the same feeling and behaviour, which leads me to think it could likely be a wave 4.

Finally, I noticed that the market feels moderately bearish. A contrarian would go bullish at this point. This is however very subjective, so I would not elaborate further.

Will I be able to buy back Singtel cheaper than $2.97? Maybe not now :(
But at least if this plays out, I would be able to get out of my mistake longs.

Have to observe as it continues.

I have prepared a list of stocks I want to buy if the market falls.
I have also prepared a list of stocks I want to sell if the market rallies furiously.

Either way, I'm fine. :)

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