Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Quick Thoughts on STI

Some quick thoughts:

1) History likes to repeat.


The 97 market crash resulted in a V-shaped rally which followed in a quick crash to bottom in 2003.
The 07 crash resulted in a V-shaped rally as well. The bottom may well be at 2013, probably near the STI 2000~2500 level if the percentage drop is similar.

2) Pivot point analysis
STI has pivots at certain numbers, and it has been pivoting around these numbers for the last few years.
The next three pivots to watch out is 2450, 2200 and 1950. Expecting around 2200 to 2450 when combined with part 1.

3) 61.8% fibonacci retracement level
61.8% is the golden ratio.
Based on market top at 3313 and bottom at 1455 (1678 difference), the 61.8% (1037 points) is around STI 2275.

4) The Feb of 1996
STI topped at 2504. Probably some support at this level.

Based on the 4 points, the probability of STI moving towards 2500 level is very high. That is at least another 200 points more to go down.

My 2 cents. I have not liquidated much of my positions yet.