Taking a little profit off the table

Over the past week, I have disposed of Singtel and SingPost.

The reason for the disposal are
1) Singtel, sold at $3.92, is quite near it's past recent high of $4.17
2) Singpost, sold at $1.29, is near it's past recent high of $1.30

There's a time for buying, and there's a time for selling. While the market may look to be on a bullish run, there's always a time the music will end.

Just don't get caught naked when the tide runs out ;)


While the music is still on, and the interest rates still low, I will be looking to sell a few more counters which I don't really like the business or the dividend yields, but bought because I think the prices were too low.

The counters are
1) CitySpring. I'm uncomfortable about its high debt, although the dividend yield is moderately acceptable.

2) Capitaland. The business of this volatile stock is probably ok, but its dividend yield is way too low, and hence the returns aren't that great. I have this counter since March 2009 at a very low price, but I might consider offloading all.

3) CapitalMallAsia. Same as point (2)

4) GLP. The business is probably ok, but I think it is getting a bit too pricey. I don't have a calculation of its value; it is more of a gut feel that $3 may be a sell.

5) Silverlake. The business is really great. But the price has gone really high too. I will have to evaluate the counter again, something which I have not done for a long time. With a 112% gain on top of the 5% annual yield, I guess I do have some leeway to play around :)

6) Cosco. My first stock bought at $2.67. Am considering to cut loss on this, buoyant by massive gains in other counters. A stock bought with zero analysis except hearsay from my sis. :x

7) Aztech. Probably a wrong FA purchase.

8) Hor Kew. Another wrong purchase.

9) SPH. Well, I like the business, but I'm unsure if the counter is worth $4.40.

10) Starhub. One of my biggest gains in my portfolio, apart from AIMSAMPIREIT. With a 147% gain and a annual 10.5% dividend yield, I couldn't be happier :)  But at around $4.70? Is it too high for such a counter? I might sell some such that my remaining counters cost $0.


Not in a rush to sell, but I'm starting to monitor again. I will probably sell some REITs soon too, just not yet...

All in all, the amount I'm eyeing to sell is about $80k and up. The cash will probably be re-invested into a second business venture, as well as invested into my wedding next year :)

My dividend yield will probably be adversely affected, but in a way, with the amount of paper gain, I could probably treat it as taking my dividends for 10 years early. Surely 10 years would be a sufficient time frame to see the next bear market.


As an afterthought after HM Shak's comment below:

Using Fibonacci Retracement on the STI,
In any case, if we take 1513 as the reference low and 3857 as the reference high from Yahoo Finance, the 76.8% retracement is 3313 and the 78.6% retracement is 3355. If we take into account the intra-day fluctuations (which I didn't bother to dig out), the values could be higher, and 3400 is about right.

This was my plan since 2011:
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.sg/2011/02/personal-updates.html

March 2011 Portfolio Update

March saw a terrible disaster at Japan, leading to my holdings of companies with Japanese exposure going down substantially. In addition, panic selling brought down prices further. Unfortunately, I have used my opportunity funds to enter Singtel the previous month. But fortunately, Singtel did not go much lower than my buy-in price at all, displaying the resilience of this telecom company. Neither did Starhub budge much too.

Since I have no opportunity funds, I did not enter this month. The good news: prices have not substantially recovered since the Japan crisis. The bad news: my rate of growth of opportunity funds wasn't as fast as I would like it to be.

While we profit from the crisis, do spare a thought for the Japanese by donating to Red Cross or the little donation box at Yoshinoya counters around Singapore.

Feburary 2011 Portfolio Update

Feburary was a down month. Lots of selling. Many of my holdings went very red, especially Capitaland and CapMallsAsia. I guess it has something to do with what the China govt is doing to their economy to put on a brake.


My entry this month was GLP, 3 lots at $2 and 3 lots at $1.88, giving me an average of  6 lots at $1.94. I believe GLP will benefit in the long run from the growth of China as an industrial play. My average is slightly below its IPO price, and I do think it offers a marginally safe entry point.

I also entered Singtel at $2.89. This is for yield, and I will ride Singtel for its ups and downs if possible.

January 2011 Portfolio Update

January was supposed to witness the Capricorn effect. Indeed, the first few days of January registered a STI increase. I've read somewhere that if the Capricorn effect did not materialise, then the market would be worse off in the later part of the year. This happened in 2008.

The only change to my portfolio this month is that I purchase another 23 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at $0.215 2 days ago to round it up nicely to 120 lots. Apart from that, I didn't see anything good for buying for myself. I'm getting more and more cautious at the moment, only entering very selectively. There's a time to buy, there's a time to wait, and there's a time to sell. To me, I believe this is the time to wait, to be excessively patient and cautious. While I believe markets can still rise, most stocks at this level have a low margin of safety as compared to before, so I would wait.

December Portfolio Update + Quick Review of 2010

December was a rather quiet month.

The main changes to my portfolio are

1) First Reit. I initiated a position in First REIT rights at 0.165, and subsequently exercised the rights by paying another 0.50, bringing my price to 0.665. This gives a yield of about 9.64%. This is a stock I wanted while it was 40c region, but procrastinated too long. While, hindsight is 20/20.

2) Silverlake. I initiated a position at 0.33, and I have written 2 posts about this.

3) CapitalMallsAsia. I initiated a position at 1.86.

4) Cut loss on China Sky at 0.22. While on hindsight, I could have done better and sold it this week with a profit instead of a $500 loss.... :(

5) Took profit on Breadtalk. Again, on hindsight, I could have earn more if I sold it this week, but then again, it's hindsight, and my number of lots is so little it would have mattered much anyway.

6) Subscribed for LC Dev rights. 

November Portfolio Update

November was quite a volatile month.

The main additions to my portfolio are

1) Saizen Reit. I added another 40 lots at 0.155 during the recent selldown, bringing my total to 140 lots. Hope I won't get to regret it :)

I was watching out for SingPost and Singtel, but they did not reach my target price yet. Will continue to watch out.

October Portfolio Update

The month of October saw one of my freezer stock slowly being defrosted... Berlian Laju... That was indeed lucky... I'm still contemplating when to sell it...

The main additions to my portfolio are

1) AIMSAMPIREIT. I was given 27 lots, 24.5 lots entitled, 2.5 lots excess. At the moment, I have 97 lots. Dividend of 0.3938 cts have been declared as well.

2) Keppel Green Trust. I loaded 2 days ago at $1.06 as it seems to be holding well. Whether it will continue to hold remains to be seen. At the moment, I have 15 lots, all at an average of $1.11.

September Portfolio Update

The month of September was yet another crazy month. I increased my networth by another $9k including dividends and after expenses. In fact, it has been such a busy month that I did not even look much at how the market was doing, nor did I have much time to update this blog much. However, I had my google adsense account banned too during this crazy month where I did not even have time to visit my own blog much.

Some updates on my portfolio
1) This is the month where I have exercised my Saizen's warrants. I have also written a guide on how to convert your warrants in SGX.

August Portfolio Update

My time spent looking at the market is dwindling by the day. The advantage is that I'm even less flustered by the daily market fluctuations than ever before.  The month of August was crazy for me as my tuition piled up due to students taking their preliminary exams.

That said, I still managed to increase my holdings somewhat. The amount was rather major for my portfolio...

1) I loaded an extra 5 lots of Keppel Green Trust at $1.13. On hindsight, I could have been more patient, but that would only mean a few cents cheaper. Well... not much $$ there though...
Total Cost:  $5650

July Portfolio Update

July was rather bullish. Sometimes, I wish it wasn't so bullish so that I can buy stocks that give good dividends on the cheap.

As mentioned in the earlier STI technical update, I expect a 5th wave to be occurring. That means it is still bullish, but a terminal end could be near (not yet). I would have to be more cautious if I want to buy any equity.

July saw me doing 2 things, of which (2) I'm not sure if I have made the right decision.

1) I bought 5 lots of Keppel Green Trust at $1.14. I remember staring at it at $1.02, and hesitated for a while. Subsequently, it climbed back fast to $1.06 and then $1.13 since. From here, and also from staring at SP Ausnet at 92c, I told myself that next time, if I think I like the price, the dividends and what the stock is doing, I should just buy it. There's no point waiting. Instead, divide the accumulation into batches, and enter slowly.

June Portfolio Update

June was relatively quiet. I warned in the first week of May, a Head and Shoulders pattern was observed at the end of 5 major Elliott Waves. This would signify that our interim top has arrived.

As mentioned in the previous update, May saw STI plunging nearly 300~400 points. For the month of June, STI rebounded higher in a possible wave B, while appearing to start a renewed plunge the last few days, ending the month almost flat.

I sold my remaining Singtel lots at $2.97

Admittedly, it's quite tough emotionally to sell when everyone is bullish; it's not easy to be contrarian.

I toyed with the idea of selling both Singtel and Capitaland, while using the profits from Capitaland to cut loss on China Sky today as I'm rather bearish. In the end, I only executed a sell order on Singtel.

My main reason for selling Singtel was simple.

1) I'm bearish about STI index, and Singtel is a major component of it.
2) Based on the Singtel chart I have below, Singtel was on the resistance line yesterday. I sold because of that.
3) From chart again, we see a lower high and lower low. Based on Dow's theory, this is bearish.
4) From chart again, Singtel was at the 38.2% retracement level. On hindsight, Singtel went on to touch the 50% retracement level, and come back down to close at the 38.2% retracement.

May Portfolio Update

May was a month of mayhem :)
Like I warned in the first week of May, a Head and Shoulders pattern was observed at the end of 5 major Elliott Waves. This would signify that our interim top has arrived.

Indeed, May saw STI plunging nearly 300~400 points. My newly loaded Aztech in April saw a decline to 20cents, while my overall portfolio went down by a fair bit.

My only purchase in May was an additional 25 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.205 to make up 70 lots. This adds another 500+ in dividends to my annual dividend amount. As of now, my average monthly dividends amount has achieved $733, getting closer to my first target of $1k average per month.

Purchased some AIMSAMPIREIT

STI went to hit 2676, very near to the 2675 low last hit on 9th Feb 2010. I was contemplating whether to buy in some blue chips to trade, but in the end, I decide to follow my original plan of a dividend portfolio.

I added 25 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at $0.205 to my portfolio, reaching a total of 70 lots.

My reasons for purchase were that

April Portfolio Update

April portfolio consists of Saizen Warrants Purchase at 0.075 and a 2nd round of loading of Aztech at 0.24.
This is the month where Starhill announced results of dividends $190. Starhill also announced a new CEO and the purchase of Malaysian properties, which is yield accretive.

A number of my holdings went XD, Capitaland, ST Engg, Aztech, which help contribute to their recent downturn.

Bought some more Aztech

I bought 19 lots of Aztech today after my late night review on it last night.

On hindsight, it was fortunate I managed to review it last night, to capture the panic sell today. I'm still cautiously optimistic about the prospects of this company.

Why 19 lots? Because I had 31 lots originally, and this top up my holdings to a nice round number of 50 lots, and an additiontal $4.56k was pumped in.

Saizen REIT Warrants Purchase

I didn't think I was going to update my portfolio so fast...

I loaded 60 lots of Saizen REIT Warrants at 0.075 today. The expiry date is in 2012, but I may convert earlier than that.

March 2010 Portfolio

March went past rather smoothly (or rather, stagnantly)

My portfolio changes consist of an additional purchase of AIMSAMPIREIT after some calculations of their yield. In addition, I will consider myself as having 1 bonus lot of Breadtalk at 0.37 since I have 5 to begin with.

As I progress along this journey, I've decided to combine my investing and dividends basket into one basket since they are basically quite similar. That means I will only have 2 baskets from now on: Long term holdings and Trading... And as time continues to tick, I'll be getting busier and busier, so I guess the amount of longer term holdings will increase more proportionately than any possible trading...

Portfolio Update:

I've loaded 45 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT this morning at a price of $0.215... This represents an additional $9.7k put into the market.

It's a primarily FA, very little TA, purchase. According to my calculations, it should yield a miminum of 8.8% p.a., assuming a payout of only 1.9 cts DPU p.a. However, I'm expecting near 2.0 cts DPU, but I shall be on the more conservative side at the moment when making my decision.

Portfolio Update: Sold half of Singtel

A short update that I sold 2 lots out of my 4 lots of Singtel this morning at a price of $3.12.

*But it went up to close at $3.15 :(  *

The reason why I sold is I want to average down my original 2 lots, and reduce a little bit of exposure to the market at this stage in the rally. My opinion remains that there could be a correction soon because of

1) Rising Wedge
2) 5 waves down and 3 waves up
3) Technical indicators: MFI