Sunday, February 28, 2010

STI Elliott Wave Update -- Bullish Bias?

I had a second look at STI from the knowledge of Elliott Waves I gained over the past year, and this time round, there's actually a more bullish wave count. Well, perhaps I could still be wrong to change to a more bullish stance after being bearish for so long. But I have reasons to believe my previous counts may not be as accurate as this latest one.

In my updated count below, from the peak in 2007, we might have actually completed 3 waves down, in terms of A, B, C. I have labelled what I thought were the subwaves. The only concern I have here is that the wave iii of C could be way too long, which led me to check up even more on Elliott Waves...

Saturday, February 27, 2010

A Little Story of an Unknown Millionaire

This is a short story of an unknown millionaire and his struggles to become one. He's the dad of a friend of mine. His networth is estimated to be a few million at 60+ years old, and his path wasn't easy.

In the 1970s, this chap was just in his early twenties. Fresh from China, he went to Hong Kong to seek for fortunes. At that time, he was merely a penniless bloke. His first job was being a coolie, and was paid less than 2 SGD a day.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

The Power of Leverage


I recently thought of a "sad" fact. Suppose I keep to current lifestyle and succeed in increasing my networth by an average of $100k per year from both savings and investments, I would still need 10 years to reach $1 mil, or 30 years to reach $3 mil! While the millionaire goal is achievable, the speed is slow. That's the motivation for me to write this article, which took me quite a few hours!

So, how is it possible that there are people who managed to achieve the multi-millionaire status while young when they are not the the soccer players in EPL, the basketball slam dunkers in NBA or any of the hot celebrities?

The answer is leverage.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

STI Updates

In summary, I'm expecting STI to top up soon before rushing downwards in a fast and swift motion.

Longer analysis: STI could be resisted by the 34 EMA and 55 EMA after closing directly at it. The 100 MA, 21 EMA and 13 EMA comes into play as well into the white candle's body. The bullish close yesterday led me to believe that STI might have a little bit of upside left. However, other factors led me to believe that whatever upside left is limited, and any fresh long entry now would really be squeezing out the last drop of juice from the lemon.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Starhub's Potential for growth

Starhub signed a network leasing agreement back in 2002 with Singtel when it merged with SCV, which relegated StarHub to the sidelines of the lucrative corporate broadband market.

'What made it (the agreement) worse was that it contractually prevented StarHub from taking the benefits of a high-speed cable broadband network beyond the residential community,' Mr Clontz said.

While StarHub could choose to lay its own cables to link up non-residential buildings, the prohibitive cost meant the firm largely stayed within its consumer boundaries in its first decade. However, the operator will get a chance to banish old demons come end-2012 when Singapore's new fibre-optic broadband highway - dubbed the Next-Gen NBN (National Broadband Network) - becomes fully operational.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Portfolio Updates

With the recent Operation Fund Switch 1, my dividends basket has changed a little, taking of macquarie international infrastructure fund and moving the funds to Starhub at its 200 SMA.
For the investing and trading baskets, there's not much difference...

The losses in the trading basket serves to remind me of my naivete in the first year of my journey towards freedom. I guess I have much more to learn.

Fortunately for me, China Sky has not been hit by any scandals to cause it to suspend or delist :(
Hopefully it will go back up for me. The NAV is much higher, and its highest price was >$2, but then again, we wouldn't know if the accounts are true.

STI Updates

The correction came as expected... How nice... if only life was so perfect....

From the chart below, we can see that STI has reached near to the 61.8% retracement level... While STI could theoretically reach 2700 before retracing, I doubt so. Let's see how...

To me, wave b of ii could have completed. How about wave c of ii (upwards) soon to 2850?

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Why get a job?

Although I'm employed with a job.... sometimes I wonder... why do we get a job? Why do we need a job? Income? Stability? Experience?

Getting a job is like... you trade your time for money. You are paid for the time you are working. Sounds good?


You are paid only when you are working! Schools have been brainwashing us since young that it is reasonable and intelligent to succeed only when we are studying, which is true in a sense. However, we brought this to society thinking that it is too reasonable and intelligent to earn an income only when we are working! How untrue this is! Isn't it better to be paid as well when you are not working???

Friday, February 19, 2010

The Genting Fairytale

Today, we saw Genting crashing past the $1 psychological support and the $0.98 at the 200MA region.

Indicators does look oversold... so a technical rebound could be due soon... But is that all to meet the eyes?

To me, the rise of Genting's stock price was a fairy tale played by market makers to lure more and more "investors" in. Whether it is true remains to be seen... this is just my hypothesis which stopped me from buying in the first place...

The beginnings of the fairytale:
The fairytale begun long ago when Genting secured the licence to operate a casino in Singapore. Genting's stock price bottomed at 40 cents on 28th Oct 2008 with a hammer candlestick.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

STI Updates -- Dojis

So many bulls running around these few days till I wanted to turn super bull with my opportunity funds. However a look at the STI chart still doesn't seem so good.

The past 2 trading days, we can see from the chart that STI has two dojis.

My Personal Goal 2010 Updates

We are now fresh into the Tiger Year! A quick look at my Goal 2010 and how far I have progressed:

1) Goal of achieving $1k average dividends per month, i.e. $12k dividends a year
With the divestment of MIIF and into Starhub, my average monthly dividends from my dividend portfolio is now $506.50. It has crossed the $500 mark.

If I include my 2 lots Capitaland (10.5 cts latest), 5 lots Breadtalk (1 cent) and 4 lots Singtel (6.2 cents) into the equation, it would be $569 on average per month.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Student on winning stock market streak, then he loses dad's life savings

It's an article by New Paper in 2007, but I think it is appropriate to post it out again:

I LOST $700,000 IN 3 MONTHS

Student on winning stock market streak, then he loses dad's life savings

• OCT LAST YEAR: Just a student in Australia, he makes $80,000 from trading

• DEC LAST YEAR: Back in S'pore after exams, he role-plays trading & makes an imaginary $100,000 on 1st day & $110,000 on 2nd day

• DEC-JAN: Convinces dad to give him life savings of $300,000. But he loses it & the $80,000

• Feb: Girlfriend dumps him. He stops trading for 2 weeks.

• FEB: He puts money on stocks of 9 companies when market reopens after Chinese New Year

Monday, February 15, 2010

Cerebos Pacific Ltd Part 2

This is part 2 of my write up on Cerebos Pacific. Part 1 is here.

Marketing Strategy
I shall comment mainly on the marketing strategy of Cerebos Pacific in Singapore.

Since young, I have been bombarded by advertisements from their flagship Brands Essence of Chicken that drinking it will lead to better results. This preys heavily on the 'kiasu' nature of Singaporeans in the academic arena. For the non-Singlish lingo trained readers, 'kiasu' literally means afraid to lose.

Fact is, to me, their essence of chicken does work. It does make me more awake and makes me concentrate better in exams. {Not advertisements hor}

As for the other brands in Singapore, I have to admit I didn't really see any adverts on them. Perhaps there are, but none had a lasting impression on me I suppose. However, Woh Hup sauces, being in a rather defensive area, would perhaps not need as much adverts. As mentioned in their report, the recession actually boosted their sale of sauces because people tend to eat more at home during recessions.

Cerebos Pacific Ltd Part 1

Recently, I came across this interesting company, Cerebos Pacific. To me, it appears to be a good company for long term investments, both for capital gains and for dividend yield. However, my understanding of true fundamental analysis isn't strong. This company caught my eyes (like Breadtalk) because it sells stuff that I use frequently, stuff that I know, stuff that is commonly found in the kitchen.

For me, I'm starting to like buying into companies I can see in my everyday life. Examples are Starhub, Singtel, SPH, Breadtalk and SingPost. This is one of my criteria nowadays before delving further into it's financial statements and technical charts. Another good example would be Aztech, of which we can see their products in Harvey Norman and Challenger. Cerebos Pacific came across as interesting to me because of their products, which I use frequently.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Rich Dad's CashFlow Quadrant for me

The CashFlow Quadrant was created by Robert Kiyosaki from the Rich Dad Company.

The Ascii representation of the CashFlow Quadrant is as follows:

E | B
S | I
In summary,
E stands for Employee
B stands for Business Owners
S stands for Self-employed
I stands for Investors

The cashflow quadrant organises the ways in which we can obtain income into just 4 categories. Most of us earns from the E quadrant, that is, being an employee. Some of the others will earn from the rest of the quadrants. They are just different methods of income generation, even though eventually, money is still the same.

Your Luck in 2010 (based on Chinese Zodiac)

A happy Chinese New Year to all readers!
May you be prosperous, healthy and successful in the year of the Tiger!

{I'm born in the year of the Boar! Huat ah!}


The Rat is strongly affected by the star of love and romance this year, which brings distractions to the work front. This star can bring a lot of marital happiness and good relationships so long as the Rat does not succumb to the effects of the External Flower of Romance star, which affects everyone. In order to ensure that good relationships come into your life, it is important that you attract legitimate love and romance luck. The Rat also gains education luck, which is very fortunate for those still in school. Two unlucky stars affect the Rat in 2010 and these are the 3 killings and the Natural Disaster star.

A suitable amulet is to hang up the Vairocana Plague on the north wall.

2010 brings the Ox a special kind of good fortune with the Big Auspicious Star only to be hampered by the presence of the Illness Star. The energy of the Ox is low this year, which is only to be expected since it is in side conflict with the Tai Sui. This results in the Ox enjoying excellent success and wealth and career luck, at the expense of their health. So as to avoid obstacles brought about by the Tai Sui, they should invoke some divine help. All Oxen must strengthen their health luck in 2010 otherwise they will miss out on a years worth of good luck.

A suitable amulet is to display the Antahkarana Wu Luo in the Northeast

Friday, February 12, 2010

STI Updates

So where will this technical rebound (or so I believe) stop? So far, from the GMMA, if the red lines were to touch the green lines again, we could see STI retest 2800 again. However, for STI to close with a hanging man on the 100MA, we might start to see a mini correction soon.

To confirm, I looked into the hourly Elliott Wave count from Yahoo Finance. Indeed, a 5 waves structure has formed, as can be seen from the picture.

How to profit from property investments

Most people will have to make an important decision of buying a property at least once in their lifetime. However, although this sounds basic, not many are sufficiently savvy to spot good deals that could potentially result in greater upside in the long run.

Whether one is buying a property for use or for renting out, there are some mistakes that should be avoided. Some of the mistakes are listed below:

(i) Lack of proper research
There are buyers who don't bother to take some time to see their property and check everything thoroughly before putting their money down. This could be costly when they soon discover that their property isn't what they think it is. Don't let this happen to you.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Starhub's Dividend Yield

On Starhub's dividend yield, there have been concerns that it is unsustainable, leading to the 'stagnancy' of Starhub's share price. The main reasons given are

(i) eroding market share for mobile and broadband subscribers
(ii) loss of EPL and ESPN rights for pay TV
(iii) EPS is below 20 cents

I shall attempt to look at each of those points in a layman method.

Operation Fund Switch 1

Sold my 16 lots of Macquarie International Infrastructure Trust at 50 cents (60% profit) finally. This translates to a profit of about $3k plus.

Used funds to buy 4 lots Starhub at $2.100 today. I did it by jumping the queue at lunch time to grab the $2.100 lots on sale.

This........ is my Operation Fund Switch 1. I do not treat it as a new purchase, but merely a transfer of funds from 1 security to another.

Some Cartoons to enjoy :)

Some cartoons shared on rmao forum. Enjoy!

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Day Trading or Trade on multi month cycles or Investing

Sometimes, I just wonder which is better....

I have seen people in my age group day trading (contra) successfully, making a few grands a month.

I have seen people in my age group trading on positions and multi month market cycles.

I have seen people in my age group doing FA investing.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

STI Updates

Market went bullish today on a expected technical rebound. The MACD Histogram +ve divergence did warn of an impending rebound upwards. The gap made few days ago is also now fully covered.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

STI Update - Technical Rebound coming?

As mentioned earlier in STI Elliott Wave Count --- wave 2 or wave 4?, it seems very clear now that it was wave iv, and wave v has already commenced, perhaps already ended.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Of Opportunity Funds And Emergency Funds

Ever since I was sorely disappointed in March 09 when I see such bargain prices for stocks, yet I do not have the funds to continue loading, I understood the importance of Opportunity Funds. Opportunity funds are a necessity for averaging down, averaging up.... i.e. increasing your position in a security.... I didn't have any more opportunity funds in Mar 09 as I was just starting out at work, and placed my monies too early into the market, into SPH, CoscoCorp, etc.

As for now, I have $9k in opportunity funds from my active income sources. More should come by March to May (if I have not seen any value or reason for entering) from my different income sources, i.e. full time job, tuition, dividends from CapitaComm, Starhill, Starhub, CitySpring, GRP.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Noble Group Technical Analysis

As we can see, Noble broke the multi-month channel support, and is now supported by the 100 MA. If the 100 MA breaks.... next support would be at the 2.50 region, the previous low (not indicated in chart). By then, the 200 MA would probably be around the region as well...

Let's see how it goes on from here. Obama's speech is clearly bad for commodities and stocks related to it.

Any rebound will likely be capped by the support likely turned resistance channel.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Never Give Up!

Whenever you feel like you will never make it, think back of this video and don't give up!

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Introduction to Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

Introduction to Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

Let me begin by stating that I'm a believer of both camps of technical Analysis and fundamental Analysis. This article is primarily focused on the very basics of what is technical and fundamental analysis, and some of the criticisms on them.

Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are merely two different analysis methods. In a nutshell, technical analysis looks at price actions and indicators, and uses this data to predict future price movements. Fundamental analysis, however, looks at economic factors, business fundamentals, stock price vs value, etc.

STI Elliott Wave Count --- wave 2 or wave 4?

It's starting to look more and more like the 4th wave of the first wave down instead of having the 2nd wave up beginning, i.e. we could still be in minute 4 of minor wave 1.

1) Dragginess, sian-ness.... the feeling that it meanders sideways for too long... the feeling of boredom...

My take is that Elliott waves shouldn't be used solely on price actions and supports/resistances; it should also be used in conjunction with the feel of the market. Different waves have different personalities, and it's up to us to identify the personality that is in the market right now. Only time will tell if I'm right.

2) Time frame. My original minute wave 4 count could have been too short.

If that's the case, the count would be the following:

Wave 1: 2947.08 ~ 2883.76
Wave 2: 2883.76 ~ 2935.84
Wave 3: 2935.84 ~ 2706.06
Wave 4: 2706.06 ~ 2767.43 ?????
Wave 5 might see 2700 again.

Will have to see how it goes. FA valuations are clearly not very attractive at the moment. The monthly salary has boosted my opportunity funds again, so I can afford to wait for my expected Primary 2 wave to retrace before loading in again.

When it's time to wait, it's time to wait. So many analysts are getting more and more bullish, so perhaps, it's really a time for me to be contrarian and stay sideline.