Wednesday, February 3, 2010

STI Elliott Wave Count --- wave 2 or wave 4?

It's starting to look more and more like the 4th wave of the first wave down instead of having the 2nd wave up beginning, i.e. we could still be in minute 4 of minor wave 1.

1) Dragginess, sian-ness.... the feeling that it meanders sideways for too long... the feeling of boredom...

My take is that Elliott waves shouldn't be used solely on price actions and supports/resistances; it should also be used in conjunction with the feel of the market. Different waves have different personalities, and it's up to us to identify the personality that is in the market right now. Only time will tell if I'm right.

2) Time frame. My original minute wave 4 count could have been too short.

If that's the case, the count would be the following:

Wave 1: 2947.08 ~ 2883.76
Wave 2: 2883.76 ~ 2935.84
Wave 3: 2935.84 ~ 2706.06
Wave 4: 2706.06 ~ 2767.43 ?????
Wave 5 might see 2700 again.

Will have to see how it goes. FA valuations are clearly not very attractive at the moment. The monthly salary has boosted my opportunity funds again, so I can afford to wait for my expected Primary 2 wave to retrace before loading in again.

When it's time to wait, it's time to wait. So many analysts are getting more and more bullish, so perhaps, it's really a time for me to be contrarian and stay sideline.

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