COSCO!!!! ARGH!!!!!!
WHY!!!??!! WHY DIDN'T I BUY THESE WINNERS AT THE LOWS!!!!
WHY DIDN'T I SELL THESE LOSERS AT THEIR PEAKS???!
Do you often get these thoughts?
I'm guilty of it at times. But I'm growing out of it.
This... is called hindsight bias.
Indeed, at times, we miss out great value buys (or technical set ups) because we were caught up with our work or with other stocks. For example, being caught up at analysing AIMSAMPIREIT and Saizen REIT as well as my tuition sideline, I missed out the next stock I wanted to study, Cosco, so that I could perhaps determine whether I should average down my original holdings and hold it for longer term. On hindsight, Cosco shot from $1.2x to the higher echelons of $1.5x today.
Wow! What a waste right! Hindsight bias.
And if anyone remembers, I was about to buy NOL at $1.52 before being scared off by a descending triangle that was pointed out to me by 3 other more prominent traders... NOL is near $2.2 now... Hindsight bias.
But think of this.... Why is it a waste when the profits weren't ours in the first place?!?!?
There wasn't any loss, and all these are merely our 20/20 hindsight!
Compare this with a gambler buying lottery, "ARGH, WHY DIDN'T I BUY THAT SET OF LOTTERY NUMBERS!" and you would see the similarity.
If there was such a thing as luck in investments, then there would be fate as well. Things not meant to be ours, are not meant to be. To me, at times, it's fate if we win or lose money from a counter. The choice of whether to buy or sell, what stocks to buy or sell, lies with us. Despite all our prudent homework and careful analysis, we still did not take the necessary action. Who else can we blame?
Just some random thoughts from me......
A rising tide lifts all boats. I think this line pretty much sums up the situation right now in the stock market.
ReplyDeleteSo, be careful what you choose.
lol..hl asia...it went up like 10x this year?
ReplyDeleteHi MW,
ReplyDeletethat's true. Not all boats have risen yet, but most had.
Hi Royston,
yup it did. I did take notice and was considering whether to buy it last year when it was around 50 cents, but I didn't. An interesting run up I would say :)