Monday, April 5, 2010

STI Quick Technical Analysis (5th Apr Morning)

STI is at a new high finally... This satisfies my minimum criteria of wave 5 in an earlier post:
STI Elliott Wave Update -- Bullish Bias?

On the other hand, this new high might just be signifying an expanded flat, although it looks unlikely. I'm a little blur on why there are 5 waves down on the daily chart, then 5 waves up again. The only reason I could think of is that the mini waves on the daily chart for STI might not be accurate enough to be used for wave counting. It appears that the usage of Bollinger bands is more accurate for minor wave counts.

However, chances are, this is the final 5th wave.

The scenarios I had in mind in that post are:

(i) STI to go near 3000.
(ii) Blue chip caps will lead the charge, followed by mid caps and small caps (duh)
(iii) More pennies fever will be seen.
(iv) A state of euphoria by traders and investors alike

Since wave 3 took so long, wave 5 would likely be symmetrical with wave 1... That means, a near 300 points rise within a period of 1 month... Given the recent low at 2675, STI would perhaps top up at 2975 to 3000....

(i) and the last paragraph has happened... (ii), (iii) and (iv) have not really materialised, but there's no proof that it will... Indeed, a near 300 points rise within a 1 month period...

Given STI reached 2962.72 this morning, it's time to be even more cautious, especially on STI component stocks... Especially with the Bollinger band appearing to close up again, wave 5 could be nearing the end of it's lifespan...

I will do a much more detailed wave count update than this post tonight...

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please Comment >>