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Sunday, May 2, 2010

STI Updates -- We could have topped

As we climb a wall of worry, the risks of entering gets higher and higher.

It appears that the STI 3000 level is getting very hard to breach... My Elliott Wave count has completed it's intermediate 5th wave; 5 waves for this 5th impulse wave has been counted.

Of course, I do not doubt that my counts are wrong, of if there could be a wave extension for this 5th wave. To me, Elliott Waves go hand in hand with economics news; I use world news in an attempt to justify the preferred count, to fine tune my count.

My chart:


In my chart, it appears a head and shoulders (red) is present as well. This is possible in Elliott Waves as the termination of the 5th wave and the start of the 1st wave down.


Of course, it could be a just a minor correction of an extended 3rd wave, although I believe the probability is less:


What could be the trigger? We have some European countries on the brink of default... If it isn't handled well, it could trigger a massive sell down, hence confirming the possible head and shoulders formation.

Time to be very cautious. My strategy would be the accumulate cash now, not buy any more stocks, and leave my dividend stocks to generate dividends. Even if there's no dip, STI 3000 is also at a dangerous level since most stocks are fairly valued or over valued.

There's no need to catch the exact top or exact bottom; we just need to be roughly there. Scraping the bottom of the barrel isn't an ideal strategy.

Let's see how it goes. As usual, disclaimer applies.

4 comments:

  1. I do not think there will be a double dip based on the economic data but of cos pullback is well expected in 2nd quarter.

    Will expected STI to reach at least 3200 by end of this year.

    That the 2 cents worth from a long term bull!! hehe

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi JW,

    I just did a TA on the STI as well. Technically, a bearish bias is obvious but OBV suggests some underlying support. I think a meaningful correction would be good. :-)

    ReplyDelete
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  4. Hi Dou,

    I'm expecting a meaningful correction :)

    Hi AK71,

    Yup.... Perhaps the meaningful correction has already started... The first major support would perhaps be the termination of the 1st wave downwards.

    ReplyDelete

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