Friday, June 18, 2010

STI Technical Analysis 17th June 2010

I have tweaked my Elliott Wave count of STI. It appears that based on Elliott Wave Theory, STI could reach and peak at 2900.

Wave A 2647 - 2820 = 175
Wave B 2820 - 2725 = 95
Wave C 2725 - 2900 = 175

Based on chart, it appears that 2900 is a very possible mega resistance as well.

I see a slanting Head and Shoulders pattern forming. This is very bearish. However, it is so obvious that I wonder if such an obvious pattern will really play out. Let's see how it goes. It could be a feel-like and look-like head and shoulders formation that doesn't break the downward sloping neckline..., and it would still satisfy the Elliott Wave pattern of a wave correction.

The fibonacci retracement level is at 2889. The downwards resistance, which coincidentally hits two interim tops and is parallel to the bottom support which hit 2 interim bottoms, suggests 2900 as a mega resistance.

Indicators are starting to point to overbought as well. But these are secondary to me.

Some extra stats:

The Left Shoulder for STI took 20 days to go from tip to toe.

For the possible Right Shoulder, from toe to today, it's the 16th day. If it so happens to be a mirror reflection, the top would be reached next wednesday. But I doubt so, because the right side of the head is shorter time frame... Perhaps the formation of the Right Shoulder need not reach 20 days, but Friday or Monday... It might not need to reach 2900, but fibo retracement at 2889 for a 61.8% retracement,

Also, the 50 dma is coming down, so it might form some sort of resistance.

Take a step at a time. I'm rather bearish... and my fresh funds are just waiting with low interest, but I will sleep well.

Final note: The sluggishness of the market feels like some wave iv of C. This is in line with the Elliott Wave count presented for a wave v final top...

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