Saturday, June 5, 2010

STI Technical Analysis 4th June 2010

STI rises on low volume rally. We can see a very very clear volume divergence between prices and volume. This is warning sign number 1.

In addition, for my Elliott Wave count, 3 waves up can be seen from the chart below. The minimum 38.2% retracement for intermediate wave B of Pri II downwards has been achieved. My alternate count would be that this signifies the end of minor a of int wave B. Either way, in the mid term of perhaps a few months, the general direction is down.

With Hungary joining the PIIGS economy, and Dow Jones falling -323 points last night breaking the critical 10000 support, we would very very likely see STI come down to test 2700. Or if we take into account a 3% drop in Dow and Europe, 3% for STI would signify a 84 points drop!!!!

A view of my chart is below:

It might look like STI has "broke" the 200 DMA resistance, but to me, it's probably a backtest that crossed it a little to lure in more retail investors. It might also signify the end of int wave B.

Because of this, and Singtel's chart, I have offloaded my remaining lots in Singtel, which is a big component of the STI. I have not the time yet to look at Capitaland's chart, which is one reason why I didn't take profit on it. Another reason is because my price of Capitaland is extremely low at an average of $1.64. It's fair value is about $3.5 (calculated long ago), so selling at fair value didn't really make much sense to me yet. Perhaps I should relook it's balance sheet to redetermine it's fair value.

In any case, June 2010 will likely be a down month. My expectations for the end of Pri II is about 2245 at 50% retracement between 3037 and 1455. However, I will continue to purchase stocks which I deem of value.

Disclaimer applies.

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