It appears to me that the C wave of my expected 4th wave could probably end soon as STI approaches trendline and fibonacci 78.6% resistance at 2890 region. I doubt that STI would have the strength and power to carry through these resistances. My major count can be found here, and the chart below is my fourth wave.
This is my expected c of b of 4th wave.
What makes this all the more bearish in the short term is the other indicators which are starting to be bearish bias in the short run.
As we can see, a dragonfly doji has appeared today at the top of this trend. Being near to the two resistances makes this rather bearish.
The CCI and %R are showing overbought, while the stochastics is poised to cross over to the dark side. While the MACD is still trending up, I usually treat this as a lagging indicator for STI.
MFI has not broken the previous high as well, and hence the rally isn't that strong to me.
Finally, if you observe carefully, there's one more gap resistance around the 2890 region... Very small one...
In short, while I'm still moderately bullish for STI, this 4th wave has clearly not ended, and some downside is expected before STI can truly start to rally to near 3000 again. I wouldn't chase this rally, but wait for a dip for some value stocks.
Good luck trading.
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momo, nice comprehensive analysis for the bullish count!
ReplyDeleteHi Jingwei
ReplyDeletethanks for the complement!
But whether it will pan out remains to be seen.