Friday, October 30, 2009

STI Updates

An interesting break down of the 50 MA by STI today, followed by a swift recovery. It appears that we have just finished an ascending triangle correction as in yesterday's chart (updated):

I'm expecting the end of the correction based on this. In fact, I bought into Singtel today as it is a strong index component.

However, from the MFI, lower lows are still being made... This is quite worrying at the moment.

As posted earlier, triangles like the one above are usually corrective waves, and always occur in the position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e. wave four of an impulse, wave B of A-B-C, or final wave X in double or triple zig-zag or combination.

Also, in the stock market, when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle.

The main thing I'm unsure right now is which wave this ascending triangle is in. I'm now starting to lean towards the idea that we are still in Major A of Primary B; that means Primary B might just be halfway through.


The current wave feels like a wave 4, breathes like a wave 4, and behaves like a wave 4. The fourth waves are usually draggy, and often proves difficult to count.

It appears that wave 4 has ended right at the support line of the ascending triangle today.

Wave 5 will be beginning, or has already begun. Wave 5 personality is such that the news is almost universally bullish (USA positive GDP! Out of recession!). Bears will get severely ridiculed (think CSY in CNA forum). In addition, the fifth wave is where average investors start to buy in. Do beware. I have to admit that finally, there are quite a number of pple around me who do not practice TA, are starting to buy in, asking me if this stock is good to buy, telling me that the broker is saying this should be bought.

Some mathematics:

In the instance that we have indeed just completed a fourth wave, and taking into account the guideline that the 5th wave usually travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle.

Widest part of triangle: 179.42
Likely possible end of wave 4: 2605.1
Possible final 5th wave target = 2605.1 + 179.42 = 2784.52

This coincides exactly with the 15 years resistance trendline!!!
See post here: http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2009/10/sti-updates-approaching-reversal-more.html

My final target remains at STI 2780 to 2790 region before any significant correction is seen.

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