Thursday, October 1, 2009

STI Updates

The ascending triangle is getting more and more prominent. Trendlines are converging, Bollinger Band is closing up, GMMA red lines are very close to each other. All indicators are pointing to an imminent break out. The million dollar question is, will this be up or down?

To make a probable guess, I'm relying on other indicators. Firstly we see the Stochastics showing a possible crossing. Secondly, there's positive MACD histogram positive divergence, not that it means a lot yet.

Most importantly, my 2 possible elliott wave counts posted before, and one more alternate count which I have not posted yet, are all telling me that there will be at least one more wave up. What could this wave be?

From chart, we can see an ascending triangle with declining volume. This is a possible coiled spring, and usually, we can expect a strong breakout. 8% breakout to 29xx anyone?

It could be fortunate (on hindsight) that I have not sold my First State Dividend Advantage. Also, reversal to bearish side doesn't seem to be here yet. It looks to me that 2700 might be broken convincingly.

However, although I believe it's likely to have a bullish breakout soon, it would be prudent not to enter into any new mid to long term longs on blue chips. This bullish breakout (maybe only, I might be wrong) might be the last chance to get out with maximal profit.

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