Friday, October 16, 2009

STI Updates -- Approaching Reversal (A more bearish view)

Yesterday's post presented a more bullish view that STI might reach 3200. Today's post explores on the possibility of reversing at or near 2790.
Upon a closer look, the long term resistance is approaching.

It appears that STI might top out at near the 2800 (estimated) region. The timeframe could likely be by November to December 2009, where the 2 major trendlines converges:

The horizontal purple line was a peak of STI on 3rd May 2006 at 2666.3. It appears that during the recent sideways market, STI hovered and played around this region for a long time before finally breaking upwards.

Estimated target is around 2790 for reversal in this scenario.

In terms of Elliott Wave counts, do take note that
1) The news is almost universally bullish
2) The glaring negative divergence in MACD and RSI. Even though new highs are made, MACD and RSI did not rise to portray that.

These 2 evidences are likely pointing to a 5th wave now. But I might be wrong though. But fact is, anything above STI 2790 is treading on dangerous ground.

Caveat Emptor.

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