Friday, October 23, 2009

STI Updates

Gann Hi-Lo Activator continues to advocate a down of STI (in testing mode)
In addition, I will be using MFI instead of RSI in my attempt to read market divergences from now on, because MFI takes into account volume.

Overall, STI achieved a 38.2% retracement to rebound at 2677 today. Whether this rebound will sustain at this portion depends largely on the performance of US tonight. At the moment, Dow is up by 80 points.

Looking at the indicators, Chaikin Money Flow looks even more negative. Both MFI and MACD are showing divergences. Stochastics has crossed over to the negative side a few days ago. Upside is looking very limited at the moment. However, I believe STI will still touch 2790 before a reversal.

In short, STI looks likely to open green, to achieve 2700 tomorrow morning before a short retracement. However, it does appear that a correction is imminent in the mid term. It's a time to beware and be cautious.

Latest update:
I posted this in the morning in CNA forums. Posting here as well.

Looking at the hourly (or 15 mins?) chart from Yahoo Finance, my crystal ball suggests that a mini wave 3 of bigger wave 5 is about to begin today, or has already begun yesterday (likely). 2700 likely to be touched and breached if this is true...

I'm not very sure, but I'm still thinking that this is the 5th wave of major C...

Some mini portfolio updates:
Following my analysis and expectations that STI is nearing 15 years resistance at around 2790, I have raised a sell order for my Unit Trust, First State Dividend Advantage, on Tuesday. I was fortunate to achieve about 5% profit after 1 year... having bought at a price which I deemed too high in terms of valuations. The money will be left in the money market fund and kept as opportunity fund.

Starhub, in my portfolio, looks set to get weaker. I had bought 3 lots at 1.91 about half a year ago, and received dividends twice. As an investor in this share, and having analysed earlier about Starhub, I believe that Starhub would be sustainable as a business. Telco is afterall a sector that is defensive. The happy FA investor in me is telling me to prepare to average down; while the TA trader in me is telling me that there's more downside to come. Combining the two analyses together, I have decided to bid my time and wait to put money into Starhub for long term (by FA) when TA tells me it's time. This will be posted in a separate post soon over the weekend.

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