Wednesday, November 4, 2009

STI Updates

The recent price actions prompted another recount. This recount was part of the wave options mentioned recently which I had earlier thought as secondary.

In this count, it appears that wave 5 has already started, but it is in a very slow moving channel.

Let's add on the fact that the great 15 years resistance line stares down at near 2725, as pointed out by Jingwei in his earlier comment. Thanks Jingwei! This is his chart:

It explains well the reversal at 2739 recently. I shall take the critical points and do a little regression analysis tomorrow to determine the exact value.

So, it does appear that we are well in wave 5. Take note too the negative divergences seen on the oscillators since the supposed wave 5 started.

So now, my puzzle is how the subcounts are in this final 5th wave. Supposed we still have a final 5th wave, we could possibly have a failed 5th wave occurring at the great resistance line... Or we could already be in the first wave downwards, and be waiting for a 2nd wave upwards to near this resistance line to allow us a respectable exit. In both cases, a bullish rebound is to be expected.

The possible trigger for the next sell-down could be the release of the actual US GDP data on 23rd November.

Let's see how it goes.

Meanwhile, I will be buying dividend stock GRP (noticed due to MusicWhiz's blog post) to keep long term for dividends. The fluctuations for this stock isn't that high, and the dividend yield is 10%. :)
A FA play in which TA thoughts on STI will be ignored.

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