Friday, November 6, 2009

STI Updates -- Bear rally ended?

Has the rally ended?

I thought I saw some impulse waves down from 2739.

A symmetrical triangle is observed, with the vertex terminating within these few days, probably tomorrow. In layman terms, we will very likely observe a bigger movement tomorrow, on 6th of November 2009, Friday, as compared to the last few days.

With charts also showing negative divergence, MACD pointing towards bearish, my initial expectations is downwards. Let's see how the waves unroll before recounting again. With Dow Jones +174 as I type now, I might be wrong. Will the market be kind enough to let me run road for some pennies?

It's time for quick and nimble trades instead.... The feeling is reminiscent of March 09... We might have another rally.... But it will likely be short-lived.


  1. I am not sure if the rally has ended but I am quite sure the easy money is over. Moving forward, we maybe seeing a range bound market next year. If that is true, we probably need a strategy to trade this kind of market.

  2. Hi dream,

    for a predominantly dividends investor, it would be good to see a range bound market :)

    The dividends would come in handy for reinvestments to generate more and more monthly dividends.

    However, my expectations in Elliott wave is such that we have only finished Major A of Pri B. Major B of Pri B would probably bring us back to 38.2% retracement to around 2300s region before a final wave up to 2900 region.

    This is however different from most Elliott Wave counts, where we are probably finishing Pri B soon, with Pri C to bring us below March lows by next year.

    We shall see how it goes. This is afterall my learning journey ;)

  3. Hi JW,

    Thanks for taking the time to reply. I am just curious why you would bother about Elliott wave if you are primarily a dividend investor? Could it be that you used to trade before you turn into a dividend investor?


  4. Hi,

    I find Elliott Waves interesting. Moreover, it provides me with a signal of when NOT to buy. It sorts of help me know the maturity of the rally, and gives a good guidance on where STI will be heading next. It sorts of give a better idea whether you can buy cheaper in the short term.

    I do attempt to use some portion of my cash to trade as well.


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