Saturday, November 14, 2009

STI -- tumultuous times ahead

Today's action prompt me to return to an earlier count of an ascending triangle:


Bulls came back fiercely with a bullish counter-attack candlestick formation against the bearish dark cloud cover, signalling some more upside to come.

It appears that STI is going to complete the 5 waves.

An little update of the wave counts so far:
Wave (i): 2605.1 ~ 2676.95 (71.85)
Wave (ii): 2676.95 ~ 2616.49 (60.46)
Wave (iii): 2616.49 ~ 2745.33 (128.84)
Wave (iv): 2745.33 ~ 2704.93 (40.4)
Wave (v): possibly equals to wave (i) ==> 2704.93 + 71.85 = 2776.78

I mentioned in yesterday's post about the unfilled gap between 2763.42 and 2773.05.
2745 and 2755 could stand in the way, but the expectations is for wave (v) to cover the gap. The market is likely to break past the great bear line at 2755 to trigger some short coverings and bring about even more bullishness. I believe that 2777 is now the most probable terminal point of this wave of intermediate degree. This will also almost satisfy the 5th wave guideline by Robert Pretcher for a triangle occurring in the 4th wave.

In short, a new high could likely be formed again, with this being the 5th of 5th wave. Extreme bullishness will be observed in the market in this final climb, especially with Dow Jones being so green now. Definitely not a time to join the mania of index component stocks.

Meanwhile, I'm still observing if penny runs are common in 5th waves since they usually signal the end...

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