Tuesday, November 17, 2009

STI -- Some more legs?

Made a mistake shorting the market with the previous analysis of 2777. Got slightly burnt by putting the cart before the horse. Just like corrective patterns could be complex and not just a simple A-B-C all the time, impulse waves could also have extensions, leading to a 9 wave rally.

The pattern hasn't been fully formed yet. There are now 2 possible scenarios. Firstly, we might be in the 5th of 5th wave. However, the wave personality doesn't feel like it; it doesn't feel like many people are buying in. In fact, it seems more probable that institutional investors are buying in.

Much as I was skeptical about this initially, it does look as though the market will be heading higher towards psychological resistance 2800, and possibly break it to go higher. Again, being the 5th wave, I'm expecting the rally to finish anytime soon. The main trigger now would be a nice reversal candlestick to form. I'm still waiting.

CCI is indeed high, but there's no stopping of it staying high for a few days, i.e. in the July period.

Moving forward, there might be some pullback or profit taking. Let's see how this will go.

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