Monday, August 10, 2009

Updated Elliott Wave Recount (fine-tuned)

Ok, so I have fine-tuned my EW count with some help from Eagle from CNA Market Talk forum.

Instead of reaching wave 3 soon for the previous post, it appears that we have just finished wave 3, and halfway through wave 4 now. Based on the updated count, it does seems that we are approaching the end of this bear rally, i.e. end of wave 5.

The light blue line represents the 100 week channel resistance. Based on fibonacci retracements, we are likely to reach near 2970 (61.8% fibo retracement) before the end of this bear rally.

However, wave 4 might not be ending so soon. MACD crossing over and stochastics pointing to down do not seem to be good signs. Furthermore, subwave 2 is rather short, so by rule of alternation, subwave 4 would likely be long and complex. Also, STI bounced off the 200 week moving average at 2700.

On the other hand, we have factors supporting STI at the moment, the positivity at DOW on Friday night, the decrease in the RSI, better than expected bank results, as well as the wave 5 scenario.

My expectations remains that STI will attempt one more time to break the 2684 to 2700 region, probably by the end of the month. Should STI managed to break this, the next target would be to reach 2970 at 61.8% retracement and near to the 100 week resistance line. I highly doubt 2970 will be breached.

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