Tuesday, August 18, 2009

STI - A correction or the start of the decline?

Nice 85 points drop today by STI.
But the million dollar question is, is this the start of the decline? Or is it just a mild correction?
I believe we might be in an a-b-c correction, and have reverted back to my most wave bullish count.

Sub a: 2700 ~ 2542
Sub b: 2542 ~ 2631
Sub c: 2631 ~

It's whether it's first wave of impulsive down-trend or continuation of up-trend which is the hardest to identify... I'm with the latter so far... But I won't deny I might highly likely be wrong... and we might well be in wave 3 downwards. That means, a scary down-wave is coming.

Why I still think there might be further upside potential is due to time-line of waves. Where I labelled waves 2, 4, and B, the correction was about 7 to 9 days... Today is the 9th trading day since 2700 on 5th August....
STI could well be this:

Another Updated chart:

The next support is the green line that is plotted, a support since March. Tomorrow, we might likely see support at 2500 to 2522 region, 2500 being the green line support, and 2522 being 38.2% wave 2 retracement of my counted elliott wave 1.

Next, for calculations of the pivot point, for tomorrow:
Pivot 2561.06

R1 2576.63
S1 2530.41
R2 2607.28
S2 2514.84
R3 2622.85
S3 2484.19

Noticed that 2530 and 2514 is seen as well.
2530 is also the first pivot support for weekly, and 2518 the pivot for monthly.

In addition, 2500, a nice round number, would likely be a psychological support as well.

Hence, I expect that the lowest for this correction could be about 2500 before the next leg up.
It's certainly getting more dangerous to long stocks at the moment. Must trade with care.

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