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Sunday, August 30, 2009

Updated Elliott Wave Count for STI

DBS's Elliott Wave count seems to have been violated with the recent rally. However, their count gave me an inspiration in an alternate recount that seems possible to me.

That is... we are still at Major A of Pri B, where Major A is a leading diagonal, where it is within a rising wedge.



Note:
Leading Diagonal are 5-3-5-3-5 waves
Ending Diagonals are 3-3-3-3-3 waves

A little graphic of a leading diagonal from Elliott Wave International:



My own graphic:




Some guidelines from CyclePro
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500-Articles/EWRules.htm#zzrule

Diagonal Guidelines:

  • Wave 1 of a LD is usually an Impulse, but in rare cases may be a LD.
  • Wave 2 is usually ZigZag family pattern.
  • Generally Wave 2 is greater than 35% of Wave 1's gross price movement.
  • Wave 4 is commonly a Zigzag.
  • It is rare that at least either Waves 2 or 4 of an ED is not a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Generally Wave 4 is greater than 35% of Wave 3's gross price movement.
  • The end points of Waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.
  • Expect the time taken by Wave 4 to be between 20% and 5 times Wave 2.
  • Wave 5 is usually greater than Wave 4 by price.
  • It is typical for Wave 5 of a LD to end before reaching the channel line.
  • It is typical for Wave 5 of an ED to exceed the channel line.

A few things that make this doesn't look as perfect.
  1. Wave 4 did not overlap wave 1
  2. Wave 2 wasn't greater than 35% of wave 1
  3. Wave 4 wasn't greater than 35% of wave 3
However, the main factor supporting this is that such a wave commonly occurs in wave 1 of impulses or wave A of zigzags!
Also, the "dragginess" so far feels like a wave 4...

Interesting fact: Leading Diagonals were not discovered by Elliott, but by Frost and Pretcher.

If the above count is the case, we can expect this upleg (wave 5) to be the final one of Major A.
This is contrary to my earlier bullish count that we can expect a wave 3 next.

How will it play out, we will have to see. With my inexperience at counting, I guess I have to wait for more waves to unfold to unlock the "secrets".

However, regardless of the count, the next leg is likely an up. It's the magnitude of this upleg that we have to take note of.

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