June Portfolio Update

June was relatively quiet. I warned in the first week of May, a Head and Shoulders pattern was observed at the end of 5 major Elliott Waves. This would signify that our interim top has arrived.

As mentioned in the previous update, May saw STI plunging nearly 300~400 points. For the month of June, STI rebounded higher in a possible wave B, while appearing to start a renewed plunge the last few days, ending the month almost flat.

Half-yearly update on Goal 2010

Half of 2010 has passed! The last time I reviewed myself was my quarter review here.

1) Goal of achieving $1k average dividends per month, i.e. $12k dividends a year
Since the quarter review, I purchased an additional 19 lots of Aztech at 0.24, raising my average to 0.2338 and my total number of lots to 50 lots. In addition, I topped up more AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.205 till I have 70 lots. However, I sold my remaining Singtel lots at $2.97, but failed to buy back at $2.90 :(
I believe I will be able to buy back Singtel at a lower price.

Academician turned Property Millionaire

This is a very interesting article I read from asiaone. It's about a Dr Peter Yee whose never-give-up attitude has led him towards the much-desired path of financial freedom. To him, there is no such thing as failure, just learning. Dr Peter Yee is a property millionaire.



http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Opinion/Story/A1Story20100617-222682.html

STI Technical Analysis 23rd Jun 2010

STI looks dangerously toppish at the moment.

My fresh funds continue to stay out of the market. No point going in if I'm expecting the market to correct deeply.

Chart as shown:

Time and Money

Unless one is born in an ultra rich family, our initial assets are very limited. True wealth can only be gained when we understand how to make the best use of our limited assets. This is the same for businesses as well; if you can make better use of your limited assets than your competitors, you will emerge stronger and better over time.

I forgo my HDB at Buangkok Vale

I mentioned earlier that I had applied under the BTO scheme with my girlfriend for HDB at Buangkok Vale. Well, we forgo our choice because we was given a rather poor queue number, and all of our choice units (about 85+% of the development were ok for us actually) were taken.

Basically, to us, to take the remaining 40 units is akin to scraping the bottom of the barrel. If we had wanted the HDB, we are left with no choice but to fork out $240k for a place where we wouldn't like ==> we don't really see the point.

True, it's cheap relative to resale prices nowadays, but we don't really see the point as said.

STI Technical Analysis 17th June 2010

I have tweaked my Elliott Wave count of STI. It appears that based on Elliott Wave Theory, STI could reach and peak at 2900.

Wave A 2647 - 2820 = 175
Wave B 2820 - 2725 = 95
Wave C 2725 - 2900 = 175

Based on chart, it appears that 2900 is a very possible mega resistance as well.

Floods in Orchard Road

Dr Yaacob Ibrahim, Environment and Water Resources Minister, says: "You can't design for rainfall of this level, it is just too huge. The thing we can accept is that we can only design our canal of a certain size, and at the end of the day, we have to live with some of these occurrences which occur once in 50 years or so. I know it is inconvenient to some Singaporeans, but on the part of PUB and NEA, we'll do our best to alleviate the problem as quickly as possible."

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A deja vu of Nov 2009, where our minister mentioned a flood of once in 50 years too :)

Singtel Technical Analysis 15th June 2010

I have sold Singtel some days back at $2.97.

Singtel went down to $2.88, after which rebounded to $3. I'm still waiting for a lower price to buy in, hopefully before the dividends of 8c.

According to my chart, Singtel is in a rising wedge with declining volume. With resistances by the 200 sma, 200 ema and 100 sma looming up, with the pattern of the bearish rising wedge, it does not seem to bode well for Singtel's price actions. Moreover, the 50 sma is coming into play to resist the price while the $3 psychological barrier seems a little formidable at the moment.

1 million dollars... so what?

This morning, I overheard this in the lift when a colleague was chatting with another over some property price.

"1 million leh! A normal person wouldn't even be able to earn that in one lifetime!"

That set me thinking... that isn't really true! A million dollars over 30 years is about $34k per annum. According to salary.sg, a $34k per annum salary is higher than 18.6% of the population (let's not get started on the distinction between PRs and Citizens).

Just a thought... Sometimes... I wonder why a million dollars is set as a milestone... Supposed a million was defined as 10⁵ or 10⁷ instead of 10⁶, would it still be a milestone? This is financial relativity. But that's beside the point in this post.

Indeed, it appears that most of us do earn the magical million dollar in our lifetime. But so?

FSL Trust -- Some thoughts

FSL trust recently suffered a drop in share price due to bad news from Groda defaulting on their ships, coupled with Daixin Petroleum arresting two of their ships because Groda used them as collateral for buying fuel.

Background of FSL Trust:
FSL is a provider of leasing services on a bareboat charter basis to the international shipping industry. It has a modern, high quality and diverse portfolio of 23 vessels consisting of 7 containerships, 9 product tankers, 3 chemical tankers, 2 dry bulk carriers and 2 crude oil tankers. The average age of the ships is around 5 years.

My quick calculations of their possible dividend yield after taking into account Groda's default:

AIMSAMPIREIT -- Extra ViewPoints

Here, I'm posting some extra viewpoints by Grandmaster89 from CNA forums:

I identified a few key risk in investing in AIMS REIT. I hope the Management can tackle proactively this year.

1) Asset valuation is still decreasing despite the slow recovery in the local economy. I guess asset valuation in industrial properties could be lagging behind the general economy since manufacturers will only recover substantially once spending power has returned back to pre-crisis levels. High unemployment levels isn't helping it at the moment. When manufacturers recover, the demand for logistic and manufacturing hubs will increase hence driving up asset valuation.

Digiland -- Beware

Digiland is the pennies of all pennies to me. Over at Afralug forums, there is a warning by forumer dydx. His posts on this company are really great, and I see no need to rewrite everything myself into a warning.

Digiland is one penny I will avoid at all costs, be it from TA or FA. TA, it's easy to buy but hard to sell. FA, it's market cap is too big, share dilution too big, for a loss making company that's so small.

Below, I will compile some of the critical posts made by forumers at Afralug on this company. It's a buyers beware, punt at your own risks, kind of stock.

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By dydx
Digiland International
Judging by the extremely high volume transacted on this counter in the last couple of days - again taking the No.1 position in today's "Top Volume Table"!! - it appears that many people are betting on Digiland International as another "get-rich-quick" investment.

Musings -- Credit Card Debt Defaults

Musings is a category where I will muse about random stuffs 

Recently, I read with interest that the statistics released by the Credit Bureau of Singapore. A whopping 7.16% of those in age group 21 to 29 defaulted their credit card debts. That's about 1 in 14 of us. The news article can be found here.

Being in this age group, I'm indeed extremely appalled. Most of the times, to be eligible for a credit card, one needs a minimum annual salary of $30k, so these are not exactly people who do not earn enough. It really makes me wonder how these people get into such debts. Most of my friends in this age group does not appear to be in credit card debts.

Google Adsense Monetization

For the month of May till now, my adsense click through rate (CTR) for WealthBuch is at 0.21% while the click through rate for timeless info site ExamWorld is at 1.54%. However, the page view for WealthBuch is nearly 7 times of ExamWorld and the Pay Per Click (PPC) is higher.

Somehow, for WealthBuch, this drop in CTR came on the backdrop of me changing the blogskin. My main reason for changing this blogskin was because of the template designer accessible from http://draft.blogger.com, and pointed out to me by La Papillion, which makes it much easier to customize this blog as and when I wanted.

Musings -- Achieving a million dollar portfolio

Musings is a category where I will muse about random stuffs

I remember in my primary school days, there's always essays on "what would you do if I have one million dollars". Somehow, the sample essays, or the essays written, were always about the same content, which are

1) I will donate some money to charity.
2) I will spend the money on a holiday.
3) I will spend the money to buy so and so something.

etc... etc... etc...

Looking back, it does appear interesting that very few essays would include using the amount in an investment portfolio. Perhaps some would say that they will use the money to set up a business, and that's that. I do understand that the main gist of writing such an essay is to train the students in thought processes, language skills as well as composition skills instead of skills of managing finances. Yet, I can't help thinking how this might impact the little minds 20 years later in the area of finance.

STI Technical Analysis 4th June 2010

STI rises on low volume rally. We can see a very very clear volume divergence between prices and volume. This is warning sign number 1.

In addition, for my Elliott Wave count, 3 waves up can be seen from the chart below. The minimum 38.2% retracement for intermediate wave B of Pri II downwards has been achieved. My alternate count would be that this signifies the end of minor a of int wave B. Either way, in the mid term of perhaps a few months, the general direction is down.

With Hungary joining the PIIGS economy, and Dow Jones falling -323 points last night breaking the critical 10000 support, we would very very likely see STI come down to test 2700. Or if we take into account a 3% drop in Dow and Europe, 3% for STI would signify a 84 points drop!!!!

I sold my remaining Singtel lots at $2.97

Admittedly, it's quite tough emotionally to sell when everyone is bullish; it's not easy to be contrarian.

I toyed with the idea of selling both Singtel and Capitaland, while using the profits from Capitaland to cut loss on China Sky today as I'm rather bearish. In the end, I only executed a sell order on Singtel.

My main reason for selling Singtel was simple.

1) I'm bearish about STI index, and Singtel is a major component of it.
2) Based on the Singtel chart I have below, Singtel was on the resistance line yesterday. I sold because of that.
3) From chart again, we see a lower high and lower low. Based on Dow's theory, this is bearish.
4) From chart again, Singtel was at the 38.2% retracement level. On hindsight, Singtel went on to touch the 50% retracement level, and come back down to close at the 38.2% retracement.

May Portfolio Update

May was a month of mayhem :)
Like I warned in the first week of May, a Head and Shoulders pattern was observed at the end of 5 major Elliott Waves. This would signify that our interim top has arrived.

Indeed, May saw STI plunging nearly 300~400 points. My newly loaded Aztech in April saw a decline to 20cents, while my overall portfolio went down by a fair bit.

My only purchase in May was an additional 25 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT at 0.205 to make up 70 lots. This adds another 500+ in dividends to my annual dividend amount. As of now, my average monthly dividends amount has achieved $733, getting closer to my first target of $1k average per month.