Saizen REIT Analysis Part 2

Saizen's Debts

As of now, debts have been repaid (the CMBS loans) for YK Shinzan, YK Kokkei and YK Shingen. For YK Keizan, it is expected to be finished in payments by Apr 2010. The main worry is the defaulted loan of nearly 7 billion yen in YK Shintoku, although it appears to be much less of a concern now as refinancing seems more and more viable.

As of 2Q2010, Saizen has about 15.5 bil of debts and 42 bil in property, giving us a 36.9% gearing at the moment. This has reduced a lot, and is starting to look more favourably to me than before.

My initial thoughts on Saizen REIT

Saizen REIT Initial Analysis

After some calculations last night, I discovered that their net income from operations per annum is only about 2+ cents per share if none of the warrants are exercised, and 1.55 cts per share if all the warrants are exercised.

Let's take an average of 1.8 cts if half the warrants are exercised. This gives us an net income from operations of 10.9% on the unit price.

A distribution of say 90% will give about 9.8% dividend yield! Sounds exciting? Let's see:

My First FA Purchase: Breadtalk

My first purchase based solely on my Fundamental Analysis, was the stock of Breadtalk. That was after I had put an amount into SPH, and left with little funds.

At that time I lacked confidence in myself. I was afraid of the market. Hence, with my limited funds, I bought a mere 5 lots of Breadtalk at 0.37 (although I could afford a max of 10 at that time). $1850 was the cost. Jan 09 was the month. Breadtalk did went down to 30 cts before coming back up, but I had no money nor confidence to buy more at that time.

Are you entrapped in the Market Box?

Personally, I think that I was ensnared by the evils of the market when I first dabbled in it.You know are trapped in the market box when you are constantly anxious about your purchase... would it fall? Would it rise fast? Would the company fail?

You know you are trapped when you need to keep looking at the stock price every few minutes.

You know you are trapped when your life just revolves around it, neglecting your work (if u trade part time) or other things in life in the process.

A Wealthy Mindset

This is a very nice youtube video I found. It's about being paid for your results instead of your time.

I'm tired....

I'm starting to tire... It seems to me that some signs of exhaustion is present in my on this journey towards financial freedom ever since I started this blog on my progress. Perhaps I really need a little break... One thing is for sure though... my networth is moving in the correct direction.... 

The journey towards financial success is indeed a marathon; there's little point exhausting all the energy in the initial stages of the journey.

Just Do It!

This catchy phrase from Nike applies for many things in our life, especially in the area of starting a business. At times, I do see people claiming that they need to think through thoroughly, need to plan more meticulously or they need more considerations, before they can decide whether to start doing something, say starting a business.

My take: By the time one finished thinking and planning (that's if you finish because it will never be enough), others would already be way ahead of you! Not that I have a business myself (I don't consider tuition a business), but at least I jumped into tuition and advertised for myself without going through an agent. I just did it.

Aztech Technical Analysis (19th March 2010)

A nice rally by STI today, with penny tech stocks on the bull.

My Aztech has risen to a high of 0.265 today, before coming back to end at 0.255.
To me, I was thinking initially whether to sell Aztech to take a quick profit... In the end, I decided against it for three reasons:

Reasons for AIMSAMPIREIT Purchase

This AIMSAMPIREIT is the former MI-REIT which almost went bankrupt and had to do placements and issue rights to finally stay above water.

So on the initial look, it might look like a shady investment in a company whose management might be extremely bad because of the saga. However, on deeper exploration, this REIT appears to be offering itself at an extremely reasonable price.

My Dividends that are coming

It's about a year since I have embarked on this journey of trading investing playing with fire buying stocks. I have made mistakes as seen in my trading baskets in red... LC Dev, Hor Kew, Berlian Laju, China Sky, Cosco.... If only those funds in these counters were placed in dividend counters.... Ah... Hindsight is always so accurate...

The rest of my dividend/investing stocks are more or less green, or at worst, flat, at the moment. Indeed, it appears that I have more 'luck' in choosing such stocks. 

The previous time I made such a similar post on coming dividends can be found here. This time, I'm making this again to help track the coming dividends as I have loaded much more on dividend stocks than before.

Day Trading or Trade on multi month cycles or Investing Part II

Earlier, I had a blog post on which style of playing the market I should adopt.

As I proceed on, I become more and more convinced that a longer term approach is more feasible for me. Although I do see people earning nearly $6k extra monthly by day trading even with a full time job, I'm not sure if they can focus or are focussing on their day jobs. I know I can't.

While it's true that you don't need your job if you can consistently profit near to $6k monthly just by trading alone, that isn't really the desired path I want to take for reasons below:

Portfolio Update:

I've loaded 45 lots of AIMSAMPIREIT this morning at a price of $0.215... This represents an additional $9.7k put into the market.

It's a primarily FA, very little TA, purchase. According to my calculations, it should yield a miminum of 8.8% p.a., assuming a payout of only 1.9 cts DPU p.a. However, I'm expecting near 2.0 cts DPU, but I shall be on the more conservative side at the moment when making my decision.

Noble Group Technical Analysis (12th March 2010)

Noble is looking more and more bearish to me even though it broke a new high.

To me, it appears that a potential double top formation could be formed. In addition, it also appears that a bearish rising wedge is in the works.



Below is my simple chart on Noble:

Term Insurance

I signed up for a term insurance recently from Great Eastern covering me for SGD$200K upon death, and covering hospitalisation for critical illnesses. The cost to me is $564 annually as I pay per year. It's about what I can afford right now without seriously slowing my journey towards financial freedom. I'm a believer of buy term invest the rest.

A quick summary of my protection, not that I have a lot:

1) CPF 40k insurance
2) Great Eastern HealthShield (for Hospitalisation only)
3) Great Eastern Smart Living Term Insurance
4) Company Group Insurance

A little insight into a common week of my life

So there are 7 days, 24 hours a day, in a week. Although I really wish I have more than 24 hours a day and more than 7 days a week, in reality, it's not possible. Unless perhaps someone invents a time machine so that I can do what Hermione did in Harry Potter, that is, go back in time again for a concurrent lecture.

If you are merely looking for talks on the market, you might want to skip this section.


This is a little post on a common week of my life now. It should be interesting for me to look back in time at this post 10 years down the road, that's if, blogger is still around. Perhaps one day, I should see my time allocation like how I see my investments; put them into an excel chart.

STI Updates -- My Wave IV

This is an update to my Elliott Wave count for STI.

It appears to me that the C wave of my expected 4th wave could probably end soon as STI approaches trendline and fibonacci 78.6% resistance at 2890 region. I doubt that STI would have the strength and power to carry through these resistances. My major count can be found here, and the chart below is my fourth wave.

HealthWay Technical Analysis 11th March 2010

Technically..... for Healthway,

MFI did not make an equal or new high, and we had a gravestone doji yesterday confirmed today with a black marubozo... The volume shoot up is also with low volume as compared to the previous meteoric rise from 0.115 to 0.185 post rights.

The chart is as seen:

Aztech: Diversification or Diworsification?

SINGAPORE, 10 March 2010 – Singapore Exchange Mainboard-listed Aztech Group Ltd (“Aztech”) today announced that its subsidiary Shiro Corporation Pte Ltd (“Shiro”) has ventured into the canned and frozen food business. Shiro targets the retail and food services market in Singapore and overseas with the mission of supplying restaurant grade quality food under the brand name of Jade or "Yu Huang" 《玉皇》.

************************************************


The concern now is whether Aztech's bold moves into areas outside of their area of competence, i.e. Marine Logistics, Materials Supply, and now F&B sector, is a matter of diversification or diworsification. The new diversification was perhaps expected on hindsight, as Aztech was seeking aggressively to enter a new area as seen in their consideration to enter the property segment, but backed out in the end.

Millionaire Scrooge?

This thought came to me as I was eating at Pepper Lunch with my girlfriend. A dinner at Pepper Lunch costs around $22.80, compared to about max $10 for a simple rice with meat and vege plus drinks from the drinks store at a coffee shop. For that Pepper Lunch meal, I could have eaten 2 dinners at the coffee shop!

In the quest towards financial freedom, there are times where we consider whether we should spend on this... or spend on that... In short, putting it in nice terms, we are considering whether the thing we want to buy is a need or a want. We think, we ponder, and we calculate to see if buying it would delay our quest towards financial freedom. But are we going to do that forever just to reach or maintain that magical millionaire status? Would we want to be a millionaire scrooge?

Portfolio Update: Sold half of Singtel

A short update that I sold 2 lots out of my 4 lots of Singtel this morning at a price of $3.12.

*But it went up to close at $3.15 :(  *

The reason why I sold is I want to average down my original 2 lots, and reduce a little bit of exposure to the market at this stage in the rally. My opinion remains that there could be a correction soon because of

1) Rising Wedge
2) 5 waves down and 3 waves up
3) Technical indicators: MFI

STI Updates -- Correction Coming?

STI rallied over the last few days. However, although I was more bullish bias, counting the more mini waves appear to be on the bearish side at the moment. In addition, different chart indicators and trendlines also display resistances on the Straits Time Index as well. The STI Elliott Wave structure seems to be rather complete this time too.

Portfolio Update (6th March 2010)

I purchased 31 lots of Aztech at the price of 23 cents. Aztech will be put into my dividends basket for its 7% yield, although I'm in it for growth investing as well. It's a mixture. Having just crossed the $500 mark in terms of average monthly dividend amount, this purchase pushes the average further upwards.

Aztech -- Reasons for Purchase Part 2

I have decided to include part 2 on my reasons for purchasing Aztech after MusicWhiz's guidance on more matters. This part 2, is however, done more thoroughly after my purchase, although some of the considerations were lingering on my mind when I made the purchase.

The first major issue that was raised was the debt level of Aztech. This was pointed out to me before by grandmaster89 of CNA forums too, so it was on my mind when I looked through Aztech's past company's announcements.

Genting Technical Analysis

The following is a rudimentary attempt on counting the Elliott Waves for Genting Singapore.

Although it is said that because Elliott Waves work on mass market psychology, it is usually not accurate for individual counters. However, with 12 billion float in the market at such a 'cheap' price compared to most other blue chips, Elliott Waves could possibly work...

The Genting Fairytale -- The Sequel

The killing machine has started its motors, and yet the fairytale continues. Genting bounced up from the 90 cents support towards 98 cents resistance in a technical rebound.

"SEE!!! GENTING IS STILL BULLISH!! DON'T WORRY! $5 IS COMING! BUYYYYYYYY!!!!!!"

The bear trap has been set. The evil market makers grinned as they continue to distribute their rubbish while watching them being snapped up like hotcakes.

Time Management for Achieving Massively

Warning: Moderately long post.

Recently, I get people asking me, why do I seem to be doing so many things at the same time, and still accomplish them. They tell me they are already tired out at work, and by the time they go home, they simply have so many other things to do that they have no time to check charts for TA, check fundamentals for FA, write a blog, read a book, etc.

Well, normally, my answer to them would be, it's at the expense of my sleep and free rest time. But in fact, I'm still able to have sufficient sleep and rest, yet complete my engineering work, give tuition, write this blog, analyse my portfolio and go for my regular exercises on top of spending time with my fiancée to be.[I know if my friends are reading this post, and know it is me, they will strangle me :x]

Aztech Group -- Reasons for purchase

Warning: very long post below

Incorporated in 1986 and listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, Aztech is now a dynamic international group with key activities in Electronics Design & Manufacturing, Materials Supply and Marine Logistics. The Group operates in six countries over three continents. In Sep 2009, Aztech suggested to diversify it's revenue source by expanding into property development with Aztech Property. Recently, Aztech Electronics launched a new subsidiary called Aztech E-lite Pte Ltd, focussing and leveraging on the strengths of the Electronics segment to branch into the LED market.

In the earlier post, I mentioned that I bought into Aztech Group at 0.23. In this post, I will delve into the reasons why I bought this stock very briefly.

Bought Aztech Group

Bought 31 lots of Aztech today at 0.23.

Why the odd number? Because I had bought 30 lots, then there was 1 sore lot left at 0.23 getting in the way. So I cleared it for the fun of it :) Also, there's a cum dividend coming on 23rd Apr 2010.

However, there were still constant sellers at 0.23, so it wasn't cleared in the end. Grrr.....