Saturday, January 2, 2010

STI Updates -- Still rallying?

Another bull run by STI has thrown out some more possible counts. At the moment, I'm still undecided between the 1-2-3-4-5 count of A of Pri B, or the A-B-C-X-A-B-C count of Pri B. In any case, I believed the recent change in sentiments for this bigger wave started on 29th October 2009. The chart below is my updated count:

The year-end rally feels like a 3rd wave of some sort. Indeed, as counted, this is the 3rd wave. I'm glad to have positioned myself with Singtel as it is a major component of the index... Currently, I'm sitting on a little profit after having taken the dividends.

Wave i: 2605.1 ~ 2803.85 (198.75)

Wave iii is expected to have started on 30th Nov 2009 at 2729.43. If we allow wave iii to be 1.618 of wave i, then we would reach 3051!

However, significant resistance stands at the 61.8% retracement level of around 2968, so I'm unsure if this supposed wave iii would go higher. It looks quite unlikely at the moment, but we shall see.

A look at other technical indicators... CCI is at a high, MFI is at a high, %R is at very high levels... STI is indeed very overbought, probably for the year end window dressing... In addition, the rate of increase of STI seems to have slowed down a lot.... It's gradient is not as steep as the early stages in March...

I'm expecting a correction very soon... Be it a wave iv, or whatever, all indicators are pointing to a correction, probably in a week or so...... Buy on dips apply only when there's value...

There's still the possibility that my counts are wrong and a recount is required...

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