Thursday, January 21, 2010

STI Updates

Although I had wanted to sleep early tonight, I find it pertinent to update the count.

I have 2 possible scenarios. The not so preferred one is that this is the blue 4 of wave 5 in the yellow box. Why it is not preferred is because the wave ii is a simple abc that took a few days, so wave 4 could likely be complex due to the rule of alternation.

The count above shows my preferred count. Wave iv is in a symmetrical triangle with declining volume. In Elliott Wave counts, triangles are a continuation of the previous trend. The previous trend is an uptrend, so the likelihood of breaking upwards is high. However, I do not expect that this breakout will exceed our 61.8% fibonacci retracement line at 2968. The strength of this 5th of 3rd wave wouldn't be that high.

However, being a more mega wave 5, wave counts tend to be a little more fractured, so the counts might go wrong or haywired. It's definitely a time to be even more cautious than before. I shall go on the defensive, and take profit on my pennies whenever I can... i.e. LC Dev... {could have but didn't}

Extra update:
Wave 1 ==> 19 candles
Wave 2 ==> 4 candles
Wave 3 ==> 36 candles so far

Extra update 2:
STI must hold 2880 today. If it does, it will become a corrective wave iv of descending triangle formation. If not, a recount required.

Extra update 3:
STI did not hold 2880. Offhand, extended wave 3 count has not been violated... but it could possibly be completed earlier than I thought...

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