Friday, September 25, 2009

STI Updates (Contrarian)

Like Elliott Wave International mentioned in their short term updates, it's a headache trying to count the waves for Singapore. Indeed, my counts has changed many times.

Many traders in forum are getting rather bearish now. So have I in my previous posts. In fact, there are forumers who mentioned a top has been formed.

Thus in this post, I'm offering an alternative more bullish viewpoint, without much counting of this corrective wave, which could be complex in nature.

Noticed that two different ascending triangles has been formed in the short and short-short term. What this signifies, we will only be able to tell in hindsight in a few months time. However, in Elliott Wave theory, triangles are for corrective waves, and thus signifies a continuation of the previous trend. Putting it in current words, the bull is yet to end.

In the shorter term ascending triangle, we could probably expect a 3-3-3-3 5-waves corrective wave as shown by the red arrows. In this count, we could have likely touched a bottom today, and tomorrow shall be green.

Let's add on a possibility. Sep's close is coming. Could there be window dressing as well? Rewind backwards to 2007 September. The market was rising and rising, and finally topped on 10th Oct 2007, 10 days after the supposedly windows dressing close date of 30th Sep. Could this repeat?

Let's see how it goes. STI is getting more and more volatile, and more and more interesting. One thing looks to be almost for sure... With the Bollinger Band closing up, we might be seeing a huge movement for STI pretty soon...

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