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Thursday, September 10, 2009

STI Elliott Wave Update

Supposed it is not an elongated flat (likely not now as STI seems poised to go way past 2.618 times of wave A)

Then we would likely still be in Int A of Pri B in a 5 wave structure. The rally has been underestimated.

Let's look back to the original 'wave C count' and treat it as a wave A of Pri B



With Dow's rally (+77 now) tonight, the final part of the count is updated.




Be it Int A or Int C at this point, it seems likely that we are on our 3rd of 5th of 5th wave.
The final count:
wave i: 2522 ~ 2667
wave ii: 2667 ~ 2560
wave iii: 2560 ~ 2795? (1.618 of wave i, might be longer)
wave iv: 2795 ~ 2705 (0.382 of wave iii)
wave v: 2705 ~ 2850 (equals wave i)


I'm for the view it's at the 5th wave now because of momentum divergences seem around.



From wiki,
Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).



With this analysis, it's a small pity I sold my UOB too early at 16.92. But well, trading is about money management, and the price of UOB is about 18% of my total assets... A lot more to learn about emotions control and discipline in addition to money management :) It's considered a cheap lesson, considering that the price paid is only possible forgone earnings...

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