STI Updates

Although I had wanted to sleep early tonight, I find it pertinent to update the count.

I have 2 possible scenarios. The not so preferred one is that this is the blue 4 of wave 5 in the yellow box. Why it is not preferred is because the wave ii is a simple abc that took a few days, so wave 4 could likely be complex due to the rule of alternation.

The count above shows my preferred count. Wave iv is in a symmetrical triangle with declining volume. In Elliott Wave counts, triangles are a continuation of the previous trend. The previous trend is an uptrend, so the likelihood of breaking upwards is high. However, I do not expect that this breakout will exceed our 61.8% fibonacci retracement line at 2968. The strength of this 5th of 3rd wave wouldn't be that high.

However, being a more mega wave 5, wave counts tend to be a little more fractured, so the counts might go wrong or haywired. It's definitely a time to be even more cautious than before. I shall go on the defensive, and take profit on my pennies whenever I can... i.e. LC Dev... {could have but didn't}


Extra update:
Wave 1 ==> 19 candles
Wave 2 ==> 4 candles
Wave 3 ==> 36 candles so far

Extra update 2:
STI must hold 2880 today. If it does, it will become a corrective wave iv of descending triangle formation. If not, a recount required.

Extra update 3:
STI did not hold 2880. Offhand, extended wave 3 count has not been violated... but it could possibly be completed earlier than I thought...

STI Updates

Chartnexus is really slow in updating the STI index nowadays. I added the last candle myself... and the indicators are one day late...

This is another count of the 5th wave instead of the ending diagonal. However, STI is still in a rising wedge. This count comes to mind because of the strength of the 3rd wave. In an ending diagonal, the 3rd wave would probably not have such strength and breadth.

Appears that correction might have ended. STI might probably go into the 5th of 3rd wave to complete at the 61.8% fibo line (2968) where most people seems to be expecting.

Following which, a possible 4th wave to a maximum possible of 2803 before the count gets invalidated, and finally, the 5th wave, which could bring us to new heights.

However, being the 5th of 5th wave, the likelihood of that final expected wave would likely find it hard to break the 3000 barrier since it wouldn't have as much strength. That would perhaps be the trigger to say bye bye rally.

I shall stick to my counts until it fails. Would most likely start moving some funds into defensive sectors like SingPost instead. Have to see how it goes as the waves unfold more secrets.

STI -- My Attempt on Andrews Pitchfork with Elliott Wave

The following is my attempt of using Andrews Pitchfork together with Elliott Wave counts. As of now, I'm on the fourth count of the 5 wave impulse extension of a 3rd wave. The Andrews Pitchfork begins on the first of the 5 wave impulse, starting from 2729.43 on 30th Nov 2009.

In Andrews Pitchfork, we are supposed to identify A pivot point followed by B and C as the peak trough pair. In my experiment here, A is the start of this impulse wave, followed by B as the end of wave i and C as the end of wave ii.

This is just an experiment; it may or may not succeed. In this experiment, STI should be bouncing off the bottom of the pitchfork, marking the end of the 4th mini wave and beginning the 5th mini wave.

Let's see how this goes....

Singtel Part 2

Looking at Singtel's chart, it looks like 200MA is a sufficiently good support. In addition, 50MA has joined the fun by going parallel to the 200MA, and functions as a 2nd MA support.

Fibonnacci wise, STI bounced off the 61.8% fibo line taken between $2.86 to $3.16, and is currently at the 50% fibo line. It is also at the 50% fibo line between $1.94 to $3.52... Good support?