July Portfolio Update

July was rather bullish. Sometimes, I wish it wasn't so bullish so that I can buy stocks that give good dividends on the cheap.

As mentioned in the earlier STI technical update, I expect a 5th wave to be occurring. That means it is still bullish, but a terminal end could be near (not yet). I would have to be more cautious if I want to buy any equity.

July saw me doing 2 things, of which (2) I'm not sure if I have made the right decision.

1) I bought 5 lots of Keppel Green Trust at $1.14. I remember staring at it at $1.02, and hesitated for a while. Subsequently, it climbed back fast to $1.06 and then $1.13 since. From here, and also from staring at SP Ausnet at 92c, I told myself that next time, if I think I like the price, the dividends and what the stock is doing, I should just buy it. There's no point waiting. Instead, divide the accumulation into batches, and enter slowly.

I'm writing a book

Yes, you heard right. I'm currently attempting to write a book on A Level Physics. It's a lot of hard work, and that explains my infrequent updates on this blog. Definitely not easy. I sleep <5 hrs a day to try to write, and think of ways to improve it, to make concepts clearer to the students.

What am I writing
I'm writing on an A level physics study guide. I chose to start on physics because physics is my forte.
After all, I'm among the top 10 scorers for 2001 A level Physics in Singapore, and among the top 39 in Asia for the 2nd Asian Physics Olympiad.

STI Technical Analysis 23rd Jul 2010

This is an update to the wave count done on 6th Jul 2010
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/07/sti-technical-analysis-6th-jul-2010.html

Apparently, I made the mistake of adapting the count to my expectations when I should have followed my timelines.

It appears that STI has completed it's intermediate 4th wave at 2648 on the 25th May 2010.
It remains if STI can break the previous high of 3037 for this high to confirm.

Oceanus -- Overhyped counter?

Recently, Oceanus came under my radar. I was always fascinated by their business of rearing abalones, a Chinese delicacy, in their farms. It had went from a share price of <20c to near 60c, before coming down again to 31.5c recently. It is interesting in its strategy to acquire farms and lands from the centre of the coast, such that it can grow both left and right sides, while its competitors would find it harder to expand because they would have farms separated by Oceanus.

Before I do any impulsive buying (like before), I made it a point to look through some secondary sources (especially the more critical ones instead of the more bullish ones). I digged out the following nuggets of information from value investing forum Afralug Forums (formerly WallStraits forum), which are rather insightful.

The most interesting paragraph is the following:
"The financial statements use fair value accounting which books estimated changes in market value as revenue. While this may comply with accounting rules, it is total nonsense from a cash flow perspective because none of the so-called fair value profits can actually be converted into cash. Only when the actual goods are sold and cash received will the company know what their real profits are."