Friday, July 17, 2009

Alternative Wave Count Updated

My Alternate Elliott Wave Count attempt:
A rather bearish mid-term, but bullish short-term outlook here...

Here is the weekly chart of STI. This alternate wave count suggests that Primary wave A had already completed in Oct 08, and we are currently in Major C of Primary wave B!

In the chart, minor wave B exceed minor A by about 18 points, giving rise to a type of corrective wave action called expanded flat. On a closer look at the weekly chart, we could actually count out a 3-3-5 wave structure as well, much like what flats should be like.

The 5 waves for Major C here is
Minor 1: 1455 - 1947
Minor 2: 1947 - 1791
Minor 3: 1791 - 2424
Minor 4: 2424 - 2211 (could be 2235 as well)
Minor 5: 2211 - ???

if minor 5 is to be 76.8% (a fibonacci number as well) of minor 3, we could expect 2697, which coincides with the 50% retracement of Primary A by Primary B!

A similar expanded flat pattern was observed as well on the S&P500, with minor wave 4 of Pri A overlapping minor wave 1 by a little. From the guidelines here:
  • Waves 1, 2 and 4 cannot overlap except by 15% of Wave 2 with leveraged securities, and then only for a maximum of less than two days.
So it does still look probable.

In addition, what gives more weight to this alternate count is that on the weekly charts of
1) Kospi200
2) Hang Seng Index,
Pri A ended on Oct, unless we count the March lows as a failed 5th wave which I doubt so.

To make things seem more bearish, a long term rising wedge seems to be falling.

However, be it the alternate wave count or the previous wave count, the general direction for the next week should be up. My target is in the 269x region.

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