test4

Monday, January 25, 2010

Portfolio Updates

Been quite some time since I updated my Portfolio here...

My portfolio is mostly unchanged, except for extra Singtel lots I bought.

Dividends Basket -- Mainly for dividends
6 lots of SPH @ 3.65
6 lots Capital Commercial Trust @ 0.84
13 lots of CitySpring at 0.51 (7 lots from rights)
16 lots of Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund at 0.305
2 lots of ST Engg at 2.28
20 lots of Starhill Global Reit at 0.525
6 lots of Starhub at 1.895
26 lots of GRP at 0.20

The total cost here is about $70k and the expected average monthly dividends is about $470.

Investment Basket -- Mainly because I like the business or for growth
5 lots of Breadtalk at 0.37
2 lots of Capitaland at 1.64 (averaged down by selling 1 lot at $3.50 before)

Trading Basket -- Hoping to sell off
30 lots of Hor Kew at 0.125
20 lots of LC Dev at 0.21
2 lots of Cosco at 2.67
60 lots of Berlian Laju at 0.117
20 lots of China Sky at 0.245
4 lots of Singtel at 2.99


I've only 6k opportunity funds left, which is bad!!!!! But I guess with pay day coming in a week's time, dividends from CitySpring, CCT, Starhub, Starhill coming between Feb to Mar, my funds should be robust again by then.

STI Expanding Diagonal?

I see a lot of bearish views lately. But has STI really picked? Was it really a mini wave 3 downwards? Only time would confirm our counts. But for now, STI could still be in the 5th wave.

Before more waves are uncovered, I wouldn't put my 100% (or rather, 80%) in this. Contrarian approach seems to suggest to me that I should remain bullish instead of getting bearish. Based on this, STI would be tracing an ending expanding diagonal. An example of such an ending expanding diagonal has been shown by Frost and Pretcher.



The million dollar question remains....

Has STI reversed it's bullish trend? Or is STI tracing out this expanding diagonal? Only time would tell.


But before going deeper into waves count, classical Technical Analysis shows that STI has broken down it's rising wedge:



In addition, CCI is at a low, %R is low, MACD (lagging indicator) has crossed down for some time.... STI is also below the lower bollinger band... All these are hinting to me that a rebound is likely coming in this coming week...

Expanding triangle? Or wave 2 upwards anyone?

Friday, January 22, 2010

Private Equity Cos Awaiting Specifics On Obama's Bank Proposal

The following news could be the reason for the recent selldown. Bearish market could have commenced. I would probably sell some on rebound.

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--President Barack Obama's proposal to rein in banks contains a number of provisions that could have a serious impact on the private equity arms of banks, as well as the private equity industry overall, depending on how the vague outlines unveiled Thursday are filled in.

Obama said in his remarks on the proposal that "banks will no longer be allowed to own, invest in or sponsor hedge funds, private-equity funds or proprietary trading operations for their own profit, unrelated to serving their customers."

Some say the clause at the end of that statement about serving customers may provide a loophole, as most banks would argue that their PE investments do just that. But the proposal nonetheless could mean any private equity or venture capital firm run by a bank would need to spin out on its own or wind down.

STI Updates

A clear A-B-C waves down to perhaps complete wave 4 of the larger degree? The strength and breadth and magnitude does not equate to a subwave of the 3rd wave.



The ding-dong between 1-2-3-4-5 now occurs within a proper channel instead of a rising wedge. At the moment, STI sits nicely on the parallel support of 2850.

Could tomorrow be the turn for rebound? Or could my counts be wrong and STI moves much much lower? :(

My main question now is whether it is a failed 5th wave and we are on wave iii downwards, or if we are still in wave iv correction. If it is the former, i.e. the failed 5th wave scenario, I guess we can already say sayonara to our market.

It's getting dangerous... Not a time to enter for long term investments...


Anyway... here comes rebound time....?

Extra Update:
2800 support appears to have held... Recount of waves might be required as wave 4 as crossed into wave 1 territory.