I sold GLP, preparing funds for either SPH or SPH REIT.
But the more I read and think, it seems SPH may be a better deal than SPH REIT after all.
However, I do expect SPH REIT to rise a little upon IPO, so....... strategize strategize strategize.....
Stocks, Personal Finance, Personal Development,
Wealth, Income, Trading, Investing, Business
test4
Monday, July 15, 2013
Thursday, June 13, 2013
STI Elliot Wave Analysis June 2013
Was free and took a quick look at STI.
I realised the waves are so crystal clear... Well, I may be reading it wrongly.
What this count means:
This is a correction, and STI will still go further up. (1) is 384 points long. If I expect (4) to end at around 3200 or below, and (5) to be almost as big as (1), then 3800 plus is achievable!
Discount that maths, my guess is that the end of the more major 3rd wave will end at the 2007 peak, which is around 3800.
The crystal ball would probably go on to tell me that a correction is then around the corner, and for a 4, it probably would be quite draggy :(
Further that, the 5. This wave 5 would be tricky, and how far it would goes really depends, since wave 1 is so short. The cardinal rule of EW theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave, and it is already satisfied in this count. But STI 4000 should be a good guess?
Of course, all these will be wrong if the current STI breaks below 3036, where wave 4 crosses 1, another cardinal rule of EW theory that cannot be broken.
I realised the waves are so crystal clear... Well, I may be reading it wrongly.
What this count means:
This is a correction, and STI will still go further up. (1) is 384 points long. If I expect (4) to end at around 3200 or below, and (5) to be almost as big as (1), then 3800 plus is achievable!
Discount that maths, my guess is that the end of the more major 3rd wave will end at the 2007 peak, which is around 3800.
The crystal ball would probably go on to tell me that a correction is then around the corner, and for a 4, it probably would be quite draggy :(
Further that, the 5. This wave 5 would be tricky, and how far it would goes really depends, since wave 1 is so short. The cardinal rule of EW theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave, and it is already satisfied in this count. But STI 4000 should be a good guess?
Of course, all these will be wrong if the current STI breaks below 3036, where wave 4 crosses 1, another cardinal rule of EW theory that cannot be broken.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Some interesting details about Eratat
Eratat is a counter listed on SGX. Previously, I have expressed concerns over its business model and its obscene amount of trade receivables.
Subsequently, Eratat reduced its trade receivables, not by collecting back the cash, but by providing something called a renovation subsidy. Which sounds nice, but still means ultimately, the cash didn't get to them.
It has been quite a while since I studied their statements. There were some people who were pointing to the SIAS research as the "authority", and expressed their confidence in this counter because SIAS said so, especially after I have expressed concerns over it. Certain things that are red herrings in my opinion are then brushed away. :(
I dug out the past reports of SIAS research on Eratat. Each and every one of the reports mentioned Increased Exposure, even though the estimated Intrinsic Value calculated by the analyst went to S$0.27.
Interestingly, the highest price the counter has ever went to was S$0.28.
Checking the history reports by SIAS (no offence meant to any organisation),
23rd Sep 2010 Intrinsic Value S$0.320 Title: New Business Shows Great Promise
06th Oct 2010 Intrinsic Value S$0.320 Title: Running a Tight Ship
04th Nov 2010 Intrinsic Value S$0.450 Title: An Exciting Set of Results - 108% Growth
01st Mar 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.480 Title: Time for value to be recognized.
05th Apr 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.480 Title: Do you want to miss this ride?
07th Apr 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.420 Title: Fast and Furious
11th May 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.430 Title: Yet Another Exciting Set of Results
05th Aug 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Strong Growth Revisited
06th Sep 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: China’s Gateway to European Fashion
08th Nov 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Climbing the Brand Value Ladder
23rd Feb 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Accumulate on Overreaction to Results
12th Apr 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Treading New Ground in Trade Show
14th Aug 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.240 Title: Focus Shifting to Distribution Expansion
05th Nov 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.240 Title: 3Q Results Showed Improvement Over 1H
26th Feb 2013 Intrinsic Value S$0.270 Title: 4Q Results Back to Par
02th May 2013 Intrinsic Value S$0.270 Title: Higher Volume, Higher Prices for Apparel
13th May 2013 Intrinsic Value S$0.270 Title: Preparing for the Next Lap of Growth
In all reports, the analyst maintained increase exposure. And in all the reports, the intrinsic value is higher than the share price.
Clearly, it can be seen that unless an investor bought in at the ultimate low, he/she will most likely be facing a big paper loss following the research reports. Well... The "investor" may make a profit another few years down the road. The question is then, how many years does that few years mean?
Research reports protect themselves by
"As of the date of this report, the analyst and his immediate family may own or have positions in any securities mentioned herein or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add or dispose of or may be materially interested in any such securities.
...
...
The use of this material does not absolve you of your responsibility for your own investment decisions. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this research material. We, our associates, directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein."
The analyst and organisation are protected by their disclaimers, but your money isn't.
Neither does any of my blog posts constitute any solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. ")
Moral of the story: Do your own thorough homework.
Subsequently, Eratat reduced its trade receivables, not by collecting back the cash, but by providing something called a renovation subsidy. Which sounds nice, but still means ultimately, the cash didn't get to them.
It has been quite a while since I studied their statements. There were some people who were pointing to the SIAS research as the "authority", and expressed their confidence in this counter because SIAS said so, especially after I have expressed concerns over it. Certain things that are red herrings in my opinion are then brushed away. :(
I dug out the past reports of SIAS research on Eratat. Each and every one of the reports mentioned Increased Exposure, even though the estimated Intrinsic Value calculated by the analyst went to S$0.27.
Interestingly, the highest price the counter has ever went to was S$0.28.
Checking the history reports by SIAS (no offence meant to any organisation),
23rd Sep 2010 Intrinsic Value S$0.320 Title: New Business Shows Great Promise
06th Oct 2010 Intrinsic Value S$0.320 Title: Running a Tight Ship
04th Nov 2010 Intrinsic Value S$0.450 Title: An Exciting Set of Results - 108% Growth
01st Mar 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.480 Title: Time for value to be recognized.
05th Apr 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.480 Title: Do you want to miss this ride?
07th Apr 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.420 Title: Fast and Furious
11th May 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.430 Title: Yet Another Exciting Set of Results
05th Aug 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Strong Growth Revisited
06th Sep 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: China’s Gateway to European Fashion
08th Nov 2011 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Climbing the Brand Value Ladder
23rd Feb 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Accumulate on Overreaction to Results
12th Apr 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.325 Title: Treading New Ground in Trade Show
14th Aug 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.240 Title: Focus Shifting to Distribution Expansion
05th Nov 2012 Intrinsic Value S$0.240 Title: 3Q Results Showed Improvement Over 1H
26th Feb 2013 Intrinsic Value S$0.270 Title: 4Q Results Back to Par
02th May 2013 Intrinsic Value S$0.270 Title: Higher Volume, Higher Prices for Apparel
13th May 2013 Intrinsic Value S$0.270 Title: Preparing for the Next Lap of Growth
In all reports, the analyst maintained increase exposure. And in all the reports, the intrinsic value is higher than the share price.
Clearly, it can be seen that unless an investor bought in at the ultimate low, he/she will most likely be facing a big paper loss following the research reports. Well... The "investor" may make a profit another few years down the road. The question is then, how many years does that few years mean?
Research reports protect themselves by
"As of the date of this report, the analyst and his immediate family may own or have positions in any securities mentioned herein or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add or dispose of or may be materially interested in any such securities.
...
...
The use of this material does not absolve you of your responsibility for your own investment decisions. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this research material. We, our associates, directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein."
The analyst and organisation are protected by their disclaimers, but your money isn't.
Neither does any of my blog posts constitute any solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. ")
Moral of the story: Do your own thorough homework.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Are you planning on starting a new business?
But why??!
This post was inspired by the number of people whom I have talked to and aspire to start their own businesses for a few common reasons.
Back in 2012, when I left my job to do full-time tuition and run a tuition centre as a business, I was thinking. Was I foolish to do so? Probably. My portfolio would have been much bigger than now had I continued as an employee while doing tuition part time, although I would have been much more tired with much less free time.
Since then, while I have not regretted the move (yet), my income certainly hasn't seen a phenomenal growth. I was fortunate to have built a sufficient war chest enough to last me for quite a few years, and fortunate not to be making losses (yet).
The learning curve so far was steep, very very steep. I know I have learned much more over the past 8 months than I did over the 4 years I was employed. I have learned what is meant by marketing, advertising, branding, as well as the different government grants and taxes, the different company structures, more about profits and losses, etc. In addition, I have met up with many people over different industries, talked to many friends who have their own aspirations, etc.
It is interesting that a number of people out there are a little dissatisfied about their jobs. Yet most of them stayed at the same job for the same few reasons
1) "I need the money."
2) "I don't know what else I can do."
3) "I want to start a business, but I don't know what business I can start."
4) "If I failed, I don't think I will be able to get employment again at this age."
and probably more I can't remember for now.
To me, the reasons can be broadly classified into one category, Fear.
The fear of change, and the fear of failure.
In my previous company, my superior used to tell me (and quite frequently), "don't be too creative in your approach, just do the necessary things to complete it. You still have a long future ahead in this company." This happens in most of the times I suggested certain changes, which probably are too radical I supposed, to be fair.
Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong at all playing safe all the time, and there's nothing wrong staying employed. But to me, if one wants to start a business to take on the stiff competition in the unsheltered outside world, one needs to step out of the box and try different things. It is not about playing safe, it is about daring to change, daring to fail, and daring to pick up from failures.
For the unsuspecting who are planning on starting a new business, what are your reasons?
Let's get a reality check on the common reasons.
“I’m working so hard at my job and being so stressed all the time.”
But hey, doing business is more hard work than ever before! Your business system isn't ready, and your responsibilities are much more! Any medical leave or vacation leave you take in the initial stages may cost you your business.
My friends usually raised their eyebrows when I told them I'm actually working harder while earning less now. Well...
"I need a second income stream."
Then why run a business? Why not just take on another part-time job, like driving a taxi, etc? Expenses usually comes before revenues, and the expenses could kill you before the business turns into an income stream.
Business building and branding takes time, lots of it. And the amount of time needed could be quite demoralizing. Just imagine weeks and months with minimal business.
“I hate my boss, and dislike being an employee.”
I realised I have more bosses now. My students, their parents, and even my partner and my tutors are all my bosses.
In a way, I have to meet objectives of many more people than before.
“A business will make me rich.”
In a way, I am probably a living example at the moment that starting out by myself earns me less than if I was a working professional. Certainly, there are examples out there where running a business earns the entrepreneur more than what he/she would earn if he/she remained employed, but I guess for the majority, it may not be the case.
As of now, I have my fair share of frustrations, of failures and of headaches of my first attempt to do a tuition business. The business aspect of tuition is addictive, but results are seldom immediate. An advertisement once out, seldom bring an immediate response. The same goes for any other marketing or advertising activities. Branding, recognition, takes time to build.
For everyone who have an aspiration to start a business, I hope I have not discouraged you. Because if you get discouraged just by a blog post, you are probably not suited to start one.
* What makes me continue in this is the addiction of running a business (or more than 1). To me, it feels like playing chess. I was a chess player during my student days, and honestly I was addicted. Every move I make in an attempt to advance my business position is like making a move on the chessboard. The difference is this chess game is for the game of life, and my opponents numbered more than one.
This post was inspired by the number of people whom I have talked to and aspire to start their own businesses for a few common reasons.
Back in 2012, when I left my job to do full-time tuition and run a tuition centre as a business, I was thinking. Was I foolish to do so? Probably. My portfolio would have been much bigger than now had I continued as an employee while doing tuition part time, although I would have been much more tired with much less free time.
Since then, while I have not regretted the move (yet), my income certainly hasn't seen a phenomenal growth. I was fortunate to have built a sufficient war chest enough to last me for quite a few years, and fortunate not to be making losses (yet).
The learning curve so far was steep, very very steep. I know I have learned much more over the past 8 months than I did over the 4 years I was employed. I have learned what is meant by marketing, advertising, branding, as well as the different government grants and taxes, the different company structures, more about profits and losses, etc. In addition, I have met up with many people over different industries, talked to many friends who have their own aspirations, etc.
It is interesting that a number of people out there are a little dissatisfied about their jobs. Yet most of them stayed at the same job for the same few reasons
1) "I need the money."
2) "I don't know what else I can do."
3) "I want to start a business, but I don't know what business I can start."
4) "If I failed, I don't think I will be able to get employment again at this age."
and probably more I can't remember for now.
To me, the reasons can be broadly classified into one category, Fear.
The fear of change, and the fear of failure.
In my previous company, my superior used to tell me (and quite frequently), "don't be too creative in your approach, just do the necessary things to complete it. You still have a long future ahead in this company." This happens in most of the times I suggested certain changes, which probably are too radical I supposed, to be fair.
Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong at all playing safe all the time, and there's nothing wrong staying employed. But to me, if one wants to start a business to take on the stiff competition in the unsheltered outside world, one needs to step out of the box and try different things. It is not about playing safe, it is about daring to change, daring to fail, and daring to pick up from failures.
For the unsuspecting who are planning on starting a new business, what are your reasons?
Let's get a reality check on the common reasons.
“I’m working so hard at my job and being so stressed all the time.”
But hey, doing business is more hard work than ever before! Your business system isn't ready, and your responsibilities are much more! Any medical leave or vacation leave you take in the initial stages may cost you your business.
My friends usually raised their eyebrows when I told them I'm actually working harder while earning less now. Well...
"I need a second income stream."
Then why run a business? Why not just take on another part-time job, like driving a taxi, etc? Expenses usually comes before revenues, and the expenses could kill you before the business turns into an income stream.
Business building and branding takes time, lots of it. And the amount of time needed could be quite demoralizing. Just imagine weeks and months with minimal business.
“I hate my boss, and dislike being an employee.”
I realised I have more bosses now. My students, their parents, and even my partner and my tutors are all my bosses.
In a way, I have to meet objectives of many more people than before.
“A business will make me rich.”
In a way, I am probably a living example at the moment that starting out by myself earns me less than if I was a working professional. Certainly, there are examples out there where running a business earns the entrepreneur more than what he/she would earn if he/she remained employed, but I guess for the majority, it may not be the case.
As of now, I have my fair share of frustrations, of failures and of headaches of my first attempt to do a tuition business. The business aspect of tuition is addictive, but results are seldom immediate. An advertisement once out, seldom bring an immediate response. The same goes for any other marketing or advertising activities. Branding, recognition, takes time to build.
For everyone who have an aspiration to start a business, I hope I have not discouraged you. Because if you get discouraged just by a blog post, you are probably not suited to start one.
* What makes me continue in this is the addiction of running a business (or more than 1). To me, it feels like playing chess. I was a chess player during my student days, and honestly I was addicted. Every move I make in an attempt to advance my business position is like making a move on the chessboard. The difference is this chess game is for the game of life, and my opponents numbered more than one.
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