Simple Update on STI

Recently I sold 2/3 of my holdings of SGX at a price of 8.72.

My simple and quick analysis on the chart of STI still looks valid.
I did a zoom in of the past few months to see if the conclusion coincides.

Based on the assumption that the current wave is a motive wave (Elliott Wave Theory), it seems that my target for a correction around 3rd quarter of 2015 will still stand.

The horizontal line is about 3650. It comes from a interim top just before the top of 2007.

The first wave is about 210 in height. If the 5th wave is about the same as the first wave, which it normally is, then we should get about 3636, pretty near to the 3650 target.

I will still play cautious for now.

Simple Chart Fortune Telling For STI (Nov 2014)

Haven't been doing fortune telling for STI for some time. This is a simple charting of STI, diagram taken from Yahoo Finance and edited.

Taking the 2007 peaks as reference, it seems like that will be a peak in 3rd quarter 2015 or 4th quarter 2017.

Adopting a long term view, I think 2017 would be a nice date to fit a 10 year cycle for markets to reach the peak.

Even if so, it meant a maximum upside gain of 15% over 3 years, or 5% a year. Risks probably not that worth taking anymore.

Personally continue adopting wait and see approach while learning how to deploy and move cash to build business systems.

STI Elliot Wave Analysis June 2013

Was free and took a quick look at STI.

I realised the waves are so crystal clear... Well, I may be reading it wrongly.

What this count means:
This is a correction, and STI will still go further up. (1) is 384 points long. If I expect (4) to end at around 3200 or below, and (5) to be almost as big as (1), then 3800 plus is achievable!

Discount that maths, my guess is that the end of the more major 3rd wave will end at the 2007 peak, which is around 3800.

The crystal ball would probably go on to tell me that a correction is then around the corner, and for a 4, it probably would be quite draggy :(

Further that, the 5. This wave 5 would be tricky, and how far it would goes really depends, since wave 1 is so short. The cardinal rule of EW theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave, and it is already satisfied in this count. But STI 4000 should be a good guess?

Of course, all these will be wrong if the current STI breaks below 3036, where wave 4 crosses 1, another cardinal rule of EW theory that cannot be broken.

STI EW count?

Been too busy.
This is a latest EW count?

Just my 2 cents.... It could be wrong. For viewing pleasure and for entertainment value.

Primary 4:
A: 3314 ~ 3118 (-196)
B: 3118 ~ 3280 (+162)
C: 3280 ~ 2916 (-364)


Primary 5:
1: 2916 ~ 3208 (+292)
2: 3208 ~ 3000 (-208)
3: if 1.618 of 1, then +472 = 3472   (3165 is critical due to downtrend line not drawn in)


Alternate count:
Primary 4 has not ended.
A-B-C-X-A-B-C


My 2 cents. That's all. Back to work.

STI Technical Analysis 23rd Jul 2010

This is an update to the wave count done on 6th Jul 2010
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/07/sti-technical-analysis-6th-jul-2010.html

Apparently, I made the mistake of adapting the count to my expectations when I should have followed my timelines.

It appears that STI has completed it's intermediate 4th wave at 2648 on the 25th May 2010.
It remains if STI can break the previous high of 3037 for this high to confirm.

STI Technical Analysis 8th Jul 2010

Although STI rallied nicely, I don't have a good feeling about this rally.

Reasons:
1) volume is low. The volume over the past few days rally is below the volume 50 day MA. I will only consider it good volume if it is higher than the 50 day MA (i.e. NOL).

2) STI closed with a hanging man candlestick pattern right at the resistance line and the upper bollinger band. Of course, it would be good to see a confirmation candle tomorrow.

Chart:

STI Technical Analysis 6th Jul 2010

It has been a long time since I looked at the STI chart. Had been really busy.

I took another look at STI, and found a more bullish Elloitt wave count. We could be in a minor wave 4 of Pri 1 instead of having begun on Pri 2.

STI Technical Analysis 23rd Jun 2010

STI looks dangerously toppish at the moment.

My fresh funds continue to stay out of the market. No point going in if I'm expecting the market to correct deeply.

Chart as shown:

STI Technical Analysis 17th June 2010

I have tweaked my Elliott Wave count of STI. It appears that based on Elliott Wave Theory, STI could reach and peak at 2900.

Wave A 2647 - 2820 = 175
Wave B 2820 - 2725 = 95
Wave C 2725 - 2900 = 175

Based on chart, it appears that 2900 is a very possible mega resistance as well.

STI Technical Analysis 4th June 2010

STI rises on low volume rally. We can see a very very clear volume divergence between prices and volume. This is warning sign number 1.

In addition, for my Elliott Wave count, 3 waves up can be seen from the chart below. The minimum 38.2% retracement for intermediate wave B of Pri II downwards has been achieved. My alternate count would be that this signifies the end of minor a of int wave B. Either way, in the mid term of perhaps a few months, the general direction is down.

With Hungary joining the PIIGS economy, and Dow Jones falling -323 points last night breaking the critical 10000 support, we would very very likely see STI come down to test 2700. Or if we take into account a 3% drop in Dow and Europe, 3% for STI would signify a 84 points drop!!!!

STI Technical Analysis 27th May 2010

STI staged a nice rebound. My primary count is that we have completed wave A of Primary 2, exactly at the 23.6% retracement line.

The rise from 1455 to 3037 represents my Primary 1 with a 3rd wave extension. Primary 2 begun at 3037, and would usually achieve at least 50% retracement. That could possibly mean STI to reach 2243 in a few months time after this technical wave B rebound.

STI Technical Analysis 21st May 2010

It looks like my maximum downside target has been reached. That was where I entered AIMSAMPIREIT. AIMS isn't an STI component stock, so it will not be affected too much. On hindsight, I should perhaps enter STI ETF instead for a probable 300 points rise (30 cents on STI ETF).

Mentioned in an earlier post on 2nd May 2010 was a mini Head and Shoulders. A larger Head and Shoulders formation appear to be forming. With this expectations, there is high probability of the market bouncing up from here towards 2945 (>61.8% retracement), a previous high.

STI Rebounding time?

STI looks set for a possible rebound. I counted 5 waves down, and STI has touched the 200 SMA.

My expectations is that if it does break, it will not break this 200 SMA convincingly as this is possibly a 5th wave of some small degree. The alternate count would be a 3rd wave extension, the 3rd of 3rd wave. A technical rebound should be in the works, but it will just remain as it is, a technical rebound. I'm bearish bias at the moment since the mini Head and Shoulders breakdown.

In addition, it looks as if a bigger Head and Shoulders might be forming on the weekly chart. Will have to monitor. This right shoulder should be the cap to any technical rebound by STI, possibly around 2945.

I don't expect STI's move down to go past the 2nd red line before a 3-waves move up for the technical rebound.

My cash level has increased further to 8.45%. However, there's not much that I want to purchase yet, so I shall await better prices for some of my targets patiently.

STI - Cup And Handle Breakdown?

Suddenly thought I saw this pattern on STI... A bullish cup and handle formation that broke down.

When a supposedly bullish formation breaks down, it's very bearish bias. Similarly, when a supposedly bearish formation breaks up, it's very bullish bias.

To me, the chart below is rather bearish if it's true... couple with my expected EW Primary 2 count, I have more reasons to be on the more bearish side.

STI Technical Update (6th May 2010)

Although I was about to sleep, I keep having this nagging feeling that I need to share my latest thoughts on a possible wave 3 extension of my expected A wave.

In this scenario, it would be very bad... Wave 3 is the strongest wave, and wave 3 of 3 will definitely smash most supports like bean curd.

The below shows my chart and my expected wave counts:

STI Technical Update

Perhaps we have already entered the downtrend.

A recap of the A-wave downwards (assuming it's an A wave after 5 waves up) taken from wikipedia:

Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.

STI Updates -- We could have topped

As we climb a wall of worry, the risks of entering gets higher and higher.

It appears that the STI 3000 level is getting very hard to breach... My Elliott Wave count has completed it's intermediate 5th wave; 5 waves for this 5th impulse wave has been counted.

Of course, I do not doubt that my counts are wrong, of if there could be a wave extension for this 5th wave. To me, Elliott Waves go hand in hand with economics news; I use world news in an attempt to justify the preferred count, to fine tune my count.

My chart:

STI Updates

We had some interesting developments for STI last week, especially on Friday.

STI broke new highs, and broke past the 3000 barrier, before some retracement now. Common technical analysis would tell that after breaking past a resistance, the chart would usually come back to test the resistance-turned-support region... and if succeed, will likely proceed to head higher.

Time Bomb Ticking -- STI 3000

STI breached 3000 barrier as expected.

This bullishness was first detected during an EW recount earlier:
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/02/sti-elliott-wave-update-bullish-bias.html

Then, with the updated count on 5th Apr, a target of near 3150 was estimated:
http://wealthbuch.blogspot.com/2010/04/sti-elliott-wave-count-update-5th-apr.html

STI Elliott Wave Count Update (5th Apr 2010)

STI achieved a new high today, with a certain degree of euphoria. It does appear that the 5th wave has commenced, but when it will end, I'm not sure yet. The bollinger band does look like it's closing up, signifying that the end of this 5th wave could be near, although not quite yet.

In my chart below, it's a repeat of the bullish bias wave count in an earlier post. The looming 3000 resistance looks rather insurmountable at first, leading me to believe we could finish the 5th wave before crossing 3000 convincingly. However, there's still the possibility that 3000 can be crossed. (Sounds like talking rubbish right?.... but this is a talk on probability.... :P)