Fibonacci combined! The ARC, the FAN and the RETRACEMENT lines!

I was reading up on Fibonacci Arc and Fibonacci Fan today.

So I combined these 2 together with Fibonacci retracement and rising wedge triangle to come out with a chart....

And this chart suggested that
(i) might be reaching 268x between 14 to 18th August eventually
(ii) the breaking of my rising wedge might occur in the week of 14th to 18th of September




From my chart plotted on hindsight, at 2424 where a mini rising wedge was formed, we had a correction to 2211. That was the point that touched
(i) resistance of major rising wedge
(ii) 23.6% fibo arc resistance
(ii) 50% fibo fan resistance
(iv) 38.2% fibo retracement resistance


Iif we continue to observe this pattern, it should go near 268x, probably to complete wave C (be it minor [a 3rd alternate count] or major). After that, it may trend down towards 264x, then break downwards...

Shall see how it plays out. Fibonacci is interesting, and it would be amazing if this works out to be true.

Similar Expanded Flat Happened in 1973

From this website
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/members/tutorial/lesson4/4-2.htm

In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A,. The formation in the DJIA from August to November 1973 was an expanded flat correction of this type in a bear market, or an "inverted expanded flat".


Notice the similar pattern with STI????

Alternative Wave Count Updated

My Alternate Elliott Wave Count attempt:
A rather bearish mid-term, but bullish short-term outlook here...

Here is the weekly chart of STI. This alternate wave count suggests that Primary wave A had already completed in Oct 08, and we are currently in Major C of Primary wave B!

In the chart, minor wave B exceed minor A by about 18 points, giving rise to a type of corrective wave action called expanded flat. On a closer look at the weekly chart, we could actually count out a 3-3-5 wave structure as well, much like what flats should be like.

The 5 waves for Major C here is
Minor 1: 1455 - 1947
Minor 2: 1947 - 1791
Minor 3: 1791 - 2424
Minor 4: 2424 - 2211 (could be 2235 as well)
Minor 5: 2211 - ???

if minor 5 is to be 76.8% (a fibonacci number as well) of minor 3, we could expect 2697, which coincides with the 50% retracement of Primary A by Primary B!

A similar expanded flat pattern was observed as well on the S&P500, with minor wave 4 of Pri A overlapping minor wave 1 by a little. From the guidelines here:

• Waves 1, 2 and 4 cannot overlap except by 15% of Wave 2 with leveraged securities, and then only for a maximum of less than two days.

So it does still look probable.

In addition, what gives more weight to this alternate count is that on the weekly charts of
1) Kospi200
2) Hang Seng Index,
Pri A ended on Oct, unless we count the March lows as a failed 5th wave which I doubt so.

To make things seem more bearish, a long term rising wedge seems to be falling.

However, be it the alternate wave count or the previous wave count, the general direction for the next week should be up. My target is in the 269x region.

Revised wave count + TA

I learned something today. Simplicity is sometimes the best way to see charts. Trendlines, moving averages, RSI, etc...

My mistake was focusing too much on Elliott Wave counts previously, deviating too much from the simple traditional way of identifying channels. Furthermore, my understanding of Elliott Waves is incomplete, leading to a mistaken analysis. The symmetrical triangle that was formed beforehand should have given ample warning. Fortunately, this wasn't an expensive lesson.

The main thing about wave counting is not about getting the correct waves, but more of getting the correct trend. It is said that if one put 10 EW gurus in the same room, it is possible to have 10 different wave counts. Waves can be wrong, which is why EW practitioners will have to recount, and re-forecast, when violations occur. This was the case for me.

The chart I have now contains my revised version of STI minor wave counts. This is a bullish count.




Currently, STI is at it's resistance of 2424. It has to break through this resistance soon so that (i) it is not a double top resistance, and (ii) it gives confirmation that it is indeed in intermediate (or major) C.

Expectation is that it will be bullish. MACD has just turned positive, while stochastics had turned positive a few days ago, something which I ignored because of my wrong counts.

Based on EW theory, a dip is expected. It might be a good idea to load on a subwave ii dip for the daring, to catch on and ride subwave iii higher up.

How it goes from tomorrow onwards is up to anyone to guess.


I have one more alternate wave count that is of a bearish nature. Instead of being in the initial stages of major C, we might instead be in the final stages of it. Will post it tomorrow, then observe where market action will be.